TechFlow News, March 9: JPMorgan’s trading division stated that the Iran war could trigger a decline of up to 10% in the S&P 500 Index from its recent highs, and U.S. equity traders are unprepared for such a scenario. Andrew Tyler, Head of Global Market Intelligence at JPMorgan, said on Monday that he has turned “tactically bearish” on U.S. equities, citing escalating Middle East tensions and oil prices breaching $100 per barrel. A correction would imply a 10% drop in the S&P 500—from its recent peak to approximately 6,270 points—roughly 7% below last Friday’s closing level.
Tyler noted that investors’ current positioning is not prepared for a downturn: “Overall positioning is neutral, with no extreme de-risking.” Energy stocks experienced net selling last week as traders “expected the situation to ease.” However, following production cuts by several Gulf nations, oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, sparking market concerns over prolonged supply shocks and stagflation risks. Tyler added that these risks could dissipate quickly if the conflict does not escalate further: “Once a clear de-escalation path emerges, this tactical stance will end, as underlying macro fundamentals still support risk assets.” (Jinshi)
