TechFlow News, March 9: Arthur Hayes recently published an analysis of the decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid and its token $HYPE, assigning a target price of $150 for August 2026—approximately five times the ~$30 price at the time of writing.
Hayes notes that exchange tokens have historically outperformed during sideways or bearish crypto market cycles. Hyperliquid is currently the largest non-stablecoin revenue generator across the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem and allocates 97% of its revenue toward repurchasing $HYPE.
Its core growth assumption hinges on the HIP-3 protocol—which enables permissionless creation of perpetual futures markets—and already covers traditional assets such as gold, silver, and the Nasdaq index. Within four months of launch, HIP-3 has contributed approximately 10% of the platform’s total revenue. Hayes’ model projects a 160% increase in HIP-3 revenue over the next six months, while the upcoming HIP-4 prediction market protocol is also viewed as a potential source of incremental growth.
On valuation, $HYPE currently trades at a P/E ratio of approximately 12x—lower than both CME (~26x) and Coinbase (~40x). Hayes’ target price implies a P/E ratio of roughly 25x, contingent upon the platform achieving an annualized revenue level of $1.4 billion—the historical high.
