TechFlow News, February 26: According to JINSHI Data, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its 2026 Article IV Consultation Statement for the United States on February 25, forecasting that the U.S. debt burden will continue rising over the coming years. Article IV consultations are the IMF’s annual assessments of member countries’ economic performance and macroeconomic policies. The forecast data published in the statement indicate that the U.S. federal budget deficit—expressed as a share of gross domestic product (GDP)—will decline to 5.9% in 2025 but rebound to 6.1% in 2026, and is projected to stand at 6.0% and 6.3% in 2027 and 2028, respectively. According to the forecasts, federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP will rise to 100.7% in 2026 and further climb to 109.8% by 2031. The statement notes that the rising shares of federal debt held by the public and short-term debt relative to GDP pose growing risks to both the U.S. and the global economy. Considering the impact of multiple policy changes, the IMF projects U.S. real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, while lowering its medium-term forecast for U.S. potential GDP growth by 0.25 percentage points.
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