TechFlow News: On February 6, analyst Ali published a detailed analysis on X, pointing out that this cycle may be witnessing a “reverse altcoin season”—a phenomenon distinct from traditional patterns. Historically, altcoin seasons typically follow Bitcoin’s rally, as capital rotates into altcoins and drives broad-based gains across the sector. In contrast, the current cycle is characterized more by structural weakness and widening divergence among altcoins. A review of the cycle reveals that Bitcoin bottomed near $15,000 following the FTX incident in November 2022 and subsequently entered a bull market, peaking near $126,000 around October 2025. Yet, during this period, the market did not experience a classic, widespread altcoin rally.
Most altcoins have exhibited features such as breaking below long-term trend channels, losing key support levels, and expanding downside volatility. Under these conditions, market opportunities are increasingly concentrated in structural divergence and two-way trading—not unilateral upward momentum. From a market-structure perspective, the current phase resembles a selective deleveraging and valuation normalization among altcoin assets, rather than a traditional, broad-based altcoin bull market. In the near term, market divergence is likely to persist, and structural downside risks remain incompletely priced in.
