TechFlow News: On February 6, Matrixport released its weekly report stating, “After a sharp correction, Bitcoin has hit a key downside target range—but market dynamics remain caught between ‘improving macro conditions’ and ‘inadequate technical recovery.’ Rising growth indicators, stronger fiscal stimulus, and a weakening U.S. dollar should, in theory, support risk assets; yet Bitcoin has yet to deliver a clear, sustainable reversal confirmation.
Technically, the critical trend level historically used to distinguish ‘temporary rebounds’ from ‘structural downtrends’ has now been breached and lost. Previous support zones have also flipped into resistance above price. Consequently, the recent rally appears more like a corrective rebound following the decline—not a genuine shift in trend or structure. Positioning further amplifies upward pressure: substantial capital entered at higher price levels, and only limited de-leveraging occurred during the correction. Absent compelling new narratives or catalysts, this existing capital is more likely to translate into supply resistance overhead than effective support.
From a cyclical perspective, the current phase resembles the late-stage top of a cycle. Historically, even when macro conditions improved during similar phases, prices did not immediately bottom out—instead, they often underwent further declines or prolonged sideways consolidation, with the overall center of gravity shifting lower. This stems from capital structure and participation dynamics: when positioning becomes crowded and participation wanes, capital that entered near highs tends to prioritize breakeven exits and risk reduction during rallies—leading selling pressure to easily overwhelm new buying interest, and making it harder for macro tailwinds to generate sustained upward momentum in the short term.”
