TechFlow News, February 4: QCP released a briefing stating that Bitcoin’s recent volatility has intensified, with the price briefly falling to approximately $72,900—the lowest level since the U.S. presidential election. It subsequently rebounded after the U.S. House of Representatives passed a $1.2 trillion funding bill, ending a partial government shutdown. The price is now testing a return above $75,000.
Although the immediate risk of a government shutdown has eased, funding for the Department of Homeland Security has only been extended until February 13, leaving the risk of a new deadline still present. Meanwhile, former President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. His stated preference for a faster balance sheet reduction has drawn market attention and could impact risk asset performance and the U.S. dollar’s trajectory.
Options markets indicate that even amid the spot price rebound, front-end implied volatility remains elevated—signaling continued market pricing-in of near-term risk premiums. The downside skew is notably steep, reflecting heightened investor concern about the risk of a sharp decline. Analysts view $75,000 as a critical inflection point: if this level holds and funding conditions normalize, it may represent a reasonable entry point for increasing risk exposure; however, a break below this level could trigger a swift market shift toward a defensive posture.
