TechFlow news — On January 19, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), HTX DeepThink columnist and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the core backdrop for this week’s crypto market is “easing political uncertainty and macro data regaining pricing power.” The attempt by Trump to exert judicial pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Powell has quickly faded amid opposition from within the Senate and the Republican Party. The market widely believes that related investigations are unlikely to yield substantive outcomes. Combined with CPI data coming in line with expectations and core inflation holding steady at 2.6%, there has been no new downward pressure on liquidity or risk assets, leaving the external environment for the crypto market relatively stable.
However, a more critical factor this week lies in how inflation and growth data will reprice expectations for the “rate cut path.” The release of December’s core PCE on Wednesday, Friday’s preliminary PMI readings, and revised GDP figures will determine whether markets continue fully pricing in a rate cut as early as January. If PCE remains sticky, and PMI reflects economic resilience, rate cut expectations may be pushed further into the future. In the short term, this would likely weigh more heavily on high-beta altcoins, while Bitcoin is more likely to trade sideways at elevated levels rather than enter a trending downturn.
Meanwhile, geopolitical factors remain significant. Although tensions involving Iran have temporarily eased, the deployment of a U.S. aircraft carrier to the Middle East indicates that risk premiums have not fully dissipated. Potential upward pressure on energy prices—and consequently on inflation expectations—still warrants attention. Overall, the crypto market is currently in a phase of “macro support with data-driven volatility,” resembling a transitional period for a new mid-term pricing regime rather than the beginning of a one-sided trend.
