TechFlow news, January 8 — Fitch raised its U.S. GDP growth forecasts for both 2025 and 2026. The revision follows the incorporation of delayed economic data previously postponed due to last year’s government shutdown. Fitch now expects U.S. GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025, up from the 1.8% projected in its December 2024 Global Economic Outlook (GEO). The 2026 growth forecast has also been revised upward, from 1.9% in the previous report to 2.0%. Due to incomplete October data, recent CPI inflation trends remain difficult to interpret. Inflation is estimated to have risen to 3.0% in December 2025 (from 2.7% in November), and is expected to rise further in 2026 due to lags in tariff pass-through, reaching an estimated 3.2% by year-end. The average unemployment rate in 2026 is projected at 4.6%, close to current levels, as the impact of slower job growth is offset by a decline in labor force growth. We expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice during the first half of 2026, bringing the upper bound of the federal funds rate down to 3.25%. (Jinshi)
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