TechFlow, December 25 — According to Jinshi Data, Galaxy Securities noted that due to economic growth exceeding expectations, CME observations show the probability of a rate cut in January 2026 has narrowed compared to earlier. After the data release, Hassett, a leading candidate for Fed Chair, stated that the growth foundation still stems from falling prices, rising incomes, and improved sentiment. He explicitly indicated that if GDP growth remains around 4%, monthly job gains could return to a range of 100,000–150,000, while frankly acknowledging the Fed is clearly behind the curve on rate cuts. We believe that third-quarter economic growth mainly reflects the fading impact of inventory and trade disruptions, which is insufficient to reverse the trend of weakening employment momentum. With employment becoming a central policy consideration and the Fed chair nomination gradually settling, there remains room for about three rate cuts in 2026.
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