Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump Says US Military Will Strike Hard at Iran; Fed Holds Steady as Waller Reiterates 2% Target; Microsoft Earnings Beat Expectations, Meta Capex Surges

I. Hot News

Fed Dynamics

Fed Holds Steady, Wash Reiterates 2% Inflation Target and Downplays Forward Guidance

• Fed maintains interest rates unchanged. Chair Wash explicitly reiterated at the press conference opening that the committee is firmly committed to achieving the 2% YoY inflation target, with no "soft target" or any other implicit target.
• Wash stated that in the current highly uncertain environment, not providing forward guidance is a prudent approach; the market has already priced in tighter monetary policy expectations, the Fed will observe closely but will not passively follow market pricing.
• After the decision, CME data shows the probability of holding rates unchanged in September rose to 36.8%, cumulative probability of hiking 25 basis points is 63.2%. Market Impact: Policy path remains uncertain, hawkish signals coexist with "holding steady", short-term supports USD and suppresses risk asset valuations, simultaneously intensifies pricing on inflation stickiness.

International Commodities

Trump Says Will Hit Iran Hard, US Military Drafts Up to Two-Week Air Strike Plan

• Trump stated at the White House that due to Iran launching missiles at US troops in the Middle East, the US "must deal a heavy blow to Iran", "it's America's turn to counterattack", and claimed Iran has requested the US not to launch strikes.
• US media reported that the US Central Command has drafted a punitive intensive air strike plan lasting up to 10-14 days, aiming to paralyze Iran's missile capabilities, awaiting Trump's final decision; military also warned of urgent shortage of air defense ammunition inventory.
• Trump also seeks to add clauses authorizing tariffs on Iran in relevant sanction bills. Market Impact: Geopolitical conflict escalation expectations quickly push up Crude Oil risk premium, oil prices rebound significantly, simultaneously intensifies inflation and Fed policy game, market sentiment highly sensitive.

Macroeconomic Policy

Treasury May Pause Adjusting Treasury Issuance Guidelines, Political Factors Dominate

• JPMorgan strategists believe that to avoid disturbing the bond market before the midterm elections, the US Treasury is expected not to adjust wording in next week's quarterly refinancing statement, pausing signals of increasing Treasury issuance scale.
• US may face about $3.7 trillion financing gap in next four fiscal years, but political considerations may prioritize over debt management goals. Market Impact: Long-term US Treasury yields near highs since Trump took office, policy and political factors intertwined, increases fixed income and risk asset volatility.

II. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: approx 4,081 USD/oz, +0.37%
• Spot Silver: approx 58 USD/oz, +1.55%
• WTI Crude: approx 84 USD/barrel, +0.06%
• Brent Crude: approx 83 USD/barrel, 24h significant rise
• US Dollar Index (DXY): approx 100.9, +0.08%

Driver Analysis: Trump's "hit Iran hard" statement and US military air strike plan exposure quickly push up geopolitical risk premium, crude oil rebounds significantly. Gold and silver performance diverges against backdrop of rising oil prices and divergent Fed decisions, overall safe-haven demand limited. USD relatively firm reflects policy uncertainty remains. Asset correlation logic clear: geopolitical escalation → oil price rise → inflation concerns heat up → Fed hawkish probability remains high, short-term commodity volatility will highly depend on Iran situation evolution and subsequent economic data.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: approx 63,718 USD, -0.17%
• ETH: approx 1,900 USD, -0.52%
• Total Crypto Market Cap: approx 2.28 trillion USD, -0.1%
• Market Liquidation Situation: 24h total liquidation $389 million, long liquidation $270 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price (63,782) nearby liquidation pressure limited, while 64,700–65,300 USD interval gathers large amount of 50x, 100x short liquidation orders, if price breaks through this area, may trigger concentrated short covering, amplify upward momentum. Above cumulative short liquidation scale approx $500 million, higher than below long approx $440 million, short risk still dominates, short-term market easier to appear short squeeze scenario, but need to watch 65,000 USD nearby high leverage liquidation dense area resistance.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC Spot ETF yesterday net outflow approx $50 million, today dynamic net outflow approx $58 million, consecutive 5 days net outflow.

Driver Analysis: After Fed holds steady, market uncertainty on policy path somewhat digested, risk preference marginally rebounds, BTC and ETH both rebound. Geopolitical conflict pushed oil prices and inflation concerns still constitute macro suppression, but leverage liquidation pressure eased supports price stabilization. ETF capital flow cautious, shows institutions still watching. Overall trend oscillating slightly strong, short-term focus turns to Apple, Amazon earnings and Iran situation progress.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Close 51,594.14 points (-2.19%), significant pullback
• S&P 500: Close 7,316.15 points (-1.52%), creates near one month low
• Nasdaq: Close 24,442.94 points (-1.74%), chip stocks drag obviously

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: 190.01 USD (-3.55%)
• AAPL: 338.19 USD (-0.56%)
• MSFT: 390.54 USD (-0.71%)
• GOOGL: 335.76 USD (+0.95%)
• AMZN: 226.65 USD (-1.82%)
• META: approx 585.61 USD (-1.31%)
• TSLA: approx 298.32 USD (-2.97%)

Performance Summary and Driver Analysis: Tech sector continues to diverge. Chips and storage stocks pullback significantly, Micron falls nearly 10%, AMD, Intel fall over 5%, Nvidia falls over 3%, drags Nasdaq; AI application software continues strong, Adobe rises nearly 6%, Workday etc. rise over 5%. Apple, Microsoft relatively resistant to falls, Google rises against trend. Microsoft after-hours trading due to cloud business performance strong rebounds significantly, shows market preference for "earnings realization" still exists. Overall presents hardware under pressure, software and part of large tech relatively stable pattern, reflects AI capital expenditure return doubts continue fermenting.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Concepts Continue Big Fall

• Representative Stocks: Micron falls nearly 10%, SanDisk falls over 7%, SK Hynix related falls nearly 3%
• Driver: AI storage demand expectation cools, plus chip sell-off sentiment.

Optical Communication Collectively Weakens

• Representative Stocks: Applied Optoelectronics falls over 13%, Coherent falls nearly 9%, Lumentum falls nearly 8%
• Driver: Follows capital expenditure concerns and hardware sentiment.

AI Application Software Continues Strong

• Representative Stocks: Adobe rises nearly 6%, Workday, Datadog rises over 5%, ServiceNow rises nearly 5%
• Driver: Software landing and profit visibility more favored by funds.

III. US Stock Individual Stock Deep Interpretation

1. Microsoft (MSFT) - Cloud Business Beats Expectations, After-Hours Trading Surges

Event Overview: Microsoft intraday slight fall, but after-hours trading due to quarterly cloud revenue growth beats expectations rebounds significantly nearly 8%. Market focuses on its AI infrastructure investment actual return progress. Market Interpretation: Against overall tech hardware sell-off background, Microsoft cloud business strong performance proves large-scale AI capital expenditure has started converting to revenue, partially alleviates market concerns on "investment too large, return uncertain". Contrasts with chip stocks continuous pullback, highlights "earnings realization" targets relative advantage. Investment Inspiration: Cloud and AI commercialization progress is core observation point, subsequent guidance will determine valuation repair space.

2. Micron Technology (MU) - Falls Nearly 10%, Storage Sentiment Deteriorates

Event Overview: Stock price falls nearly 10%, leads storage and semiconductor sector fall, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index under pressure. Market Interpretation: Market doubts on HBM and conventional storage price hike cycle sustainability deepen, funds continue withdrawing from high valuation storage targets. Previously AI server demand expectation once pushed sector rise, but recent expectation correction sentiment occupies dominant. Investment Inspiration: Short-term sentiment dominant, need closely track large customer capital expenditure and inventory data.

3. Nvidia (NVDA) - Falls Over 3%, AI Hardware Pressure Continues

Event Overview: Stock price falls 3.55% to 190.01 USD, continues suppressed by AI infrastructure cost and competition concerns. Market Interpretation: Market still digesting capital expenditure return cycle, financing structure and competition pattern multiple doubts, rebound weak. Contrasts with Microsoft cloud business beats expectations, shows hardware and software/cloud services divergence intensifies. Investment Inspiration: Long-term AI demand logic unchanged, but short-term valuation and expenditure rhythm still needs strict verification.

4. Apple (AAPL) - Relatively Resistant to Falls, Certainty Premium Still Exists

Event Overview: Stock price falls 0.56% to 338.19 USD, performance better than most tech stocks. Today after market will release earnings. Market Interpretation: In hardware sector generally under pressure, Apple relies on stable cash flow and service business resilience obtains relative certainty premium. Market waits for its earnings further verify device and service growth, and AI related investment commercialization progress. Investment Inspiration: Certainty assets favored in volatile market, earnings result will affect short-term capital flow.

5. Meta (META) - Pullback, Capital Expenditure Guidance Concerned

Event Overview: Stock price falls about 1.3%, after market focuses on its capital expenditure outlook. Previously market kept sensitive to AI related investment scale. Market Interpretation: Investors still have doubts on ultra-large scale tech companies continuously adding AI infrastructure return cycle, any upward revision capital expenditure guidance may trigger volatility. Contrasts with Microsoft cloud business beats expectations, shows market prefers realized revenue growth. Investment Inspiration: Capital expenditure discipline and AI monetization efficiency are key pricing factors.

IV. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Samsung Electronics Thursday reported Q2 net profit 71.62 trillion Korean Won (approx 49.6 billion USD), YoY growth 1299.9%. Samsung Electronics is one of global largest high-end high bandwidth memory (HBM) semiconductor suppliers, company in a regulatory filing stated, April to June period operating profit YoY growth 1813.8%, reached 89.49 trillion Korean Won; revenue growth 130%, reached 171.49 trillion Korean Won.

2. Ethereum Foundation appointed Pascal Caversaccio (pcaversaccio) as fourth board member, current board members include Chairman Aya Miyaguchi, Founder Vitalik Buterin and Swiss Legal Advisor Patrick Storchenegger. Caversaccio is Ethereum security organization SEAL 911 co-founder, known for technical security expertise and crypto punk culture, privacy and decentralization philosophy comments, also is "Ethereum Crypto Punk Manifesto" author.

3. US President Trump local time July 29 afternoon at White House to media stated, due to "Iran launching missiles at US troops in Middle East", US "must deal heavy blow to Iran", now "it's America's turn to counterattack". Trump stated, "Iran knows this hit is inevitable, and requested US not to launch strikes", but US will "give them a lesson".

4. Microsoft Company Q4 revenue 90.01 billion USD, YoY growth 18%; Meta Q2 revenue 60.8 billion USD, YoY growth 28%.

5. Local time July 29, US Federal Reserve latest Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting minutes show, committee with 9 votes against 3 votes result, decided to keep federal funds rate target range continuing to maintain between 3.5% to 3.75%. Meanwhile Wash reiterates 2% inflation target, refuses to call Fed "holds steady".

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Preview

July 30 (Thursday)

★★★★★ Fed announces interest rate decision, market expects hold steady, after meeting Chair Wash holds press conference; focus on subsequent interest rate path statement and whether September restarts hiking; current inflation pressure and tariff uncertainty coexist ★★★★★ US announces June Core PCE price index, Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate initial value, weekly initial jobless claims ★★★★★ Apple, Amazon release earnings, test AI commercialization effectiveness ★★★★ Samsung Electronics announces complete Q2 earnings (Storage & AI Chips) ★★★ Coinbase, Strategy after market release earnings

July 31 (Friday)

★★★★ Kioxia announces earnings (Japan-Korea Storage Three Heroes closing) US announces July Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value

Institutional Views:

Analysts generally believe, Trump "hit Iran hard" statement significantly pushes up geopolitical risk premium and oil prices, intensifies inflation concerns, makes Fed policy path more complex. Wash reiterates 2% target and downplays forward guidance, shows Fed vigilance on inflation still exists. US stock hardware and storage continue under pressure, reflects AI capital expenditure return repricing still deepening; Microsoft cloud business beats expectations then provided partial support. Crypto market stabilizes and rebounds after decision, but macro uncertainty still high. Overall consensus is geopolitical and policy dual factors will dominate short-term volatility, Apple and Amazon earnings become next key pricing window.

Disclaimer: Above content organized by AI search, manual only verification release, not as any investment advice. Data in text inevitably exists deviation, please take market instant data as standard.