US Stock Market Trend (July 30): Microsoft Surged 8%, Meta Plunged 10%, Nasdaq Officially Fell Into Correction Territory

By: TechFlow Research

The Fed meeting itself was uneventful, keeping interest rates unchanged, but there were three dissenting votes from voting members requesting a rate hike. Chair Warsh refused to give any forward guidance on next steps. What really hammered the market was a statement in the early morning: Trump threatened to "deal a heavy blow to Iran" after Iran launched missiles at US troops in the Middle East. The three major indices turned sharply downward in late trading, with the Nasdaq 100 retracing over 11% from its June high, officially entering a technical correction zone.

Chip stocks fell for the fifth consecutive trading day. Micron dropped nearly 10% in a single day. The 30-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.2% amidst the chaos, hitting a new high since 2007. After-hours earnings reports from tech giants were a mix of fire and ice: Microsoft surged over 8%, while Meta plummeted over 10% due to guidance missing expectations.

Trump Suddenly Attacks in Early Morning, US Stocks Plunge in Late Trading

The S&P 500 fell 1.52% to 7,316.15 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.74% to 24,442.94 points. The Dow Jones fell 2.19% to 51,594.14 points. The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.06%, accumulating a drop of over 11% from its June high, officially sliding into the correction zone.

Just before 3 AM Beijing time, the three major indices were actually rising. The real turning point was Trump's statement during a media interview, saying that because Iran launched missiles at US troops in the Middle East, it was America's "turn to counterattack." As soon as these words were spoken, the three major indices immediately turned and plummeted.

Research firm Bespoke reviewed historical data and found that some selling pressure in late trading is common after the new Fed Chair concludes their second press conference, which is not surprising. What is surprising is that today's decline was much sharper than historical patterns. However, if blaming is to be done, the bulk of it should not be attributed to Warsh.

After news of the Iranian missile attack broke, Brent crude oil rose 3.4% to near $87 at one point, and WTI rose about 4% to near $82, ending the previous three-day declining trend.

Warsh Refuses Forward Guidance, 30-Year US Treasury Breaks 5.2% to Hit 18-Year High

The Fed's decision itself maintained unchanged interest rates, but there were three dissenting votes requesting a rate hike, which is uncommon recently. At the press conference, when asked whether rates would hike at the next meeting, Warsh chose to dodge the question, insisting on not giving the market any clear signals. He even said that the recent rapid rise in US Treasury yields has "done quite a lot of the Fed's work," but changes in yields are themselves the market's expected reaction to inflation and policy paths, and ultimately rely on the Fed's own actions to materialize.

Meanwhile, the US 30-year Treasury yield quietly climbed past the 5.2% line, a high not seen since 2007. This evasive tactic looks like a very practical calculation to insiders: Warsh likely wants to drag it out until September to show his hand. Scenario 1: The Middle East calms down by then, and the rate hike question is automatically voided, everyone happy. Scenario 2: If inflation burns hotter over the next month and a half, Warsh will have to bite the bullet and announce the two words Trump hates hearing most before the midterm election voting: rate hike.

Ultimately, how the inflation chessboard plays out next is actually in Trump's hands, not Warsh's. That day, he not only threatened to teach Iran a lesson but also mentioned hoping to insert clauses imposing tariffs on Iran into the sanctions bill against Russia previously promoted by the late Senator Graham.

Microsoft Earnings Explode, Meta Guidance Chills Hearts

After-hours earnings reports showed two extremes. Microsoft stock surged over 8% after hours. Fourth fiscal quarter revenue was $90.01 billion, up 18% year-over-year, far exceeding market expectations of $87.72 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $4.74 also significantly beat expectations. Azure cloud growth reached its highest point since 2022, and annual revenue touched $100 billion for the first time.

Meta's story was completely the opposite, with stock price falling over 10% after hours. Q2 revenue was $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, which itself wasn't bad, but earnings per share of $6.18 was lower than $7.14 in the same period last year. The company's Q3 revenue guidance midpoint was also lower than analyst estimates. This earnings report caused investors to doubt the company's earnings quality and spending pace.

Qualcomm fell nearly 5% after hours, with Q3 revenue and earnings per share both declining year-over-year. Mobile business revenue hit the lowest level since 2021. The company also announced price increases for processors starting in September. Lam Research rose over 5% against the trend after hours, while Arm fell over 3% after hours.

Chip Stocks Fall for Five Consecutive Days, Micron Evaporates Nearly 10% in Single Day

The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index plunged 5.33%, falling for the fifth consecutive trading day. Micron Technology opened high but closed low combined with a late trading plunge, closing down 9.94%, with latest market cap sliding to $864.6 billion. SanDisk turned directly from gain to loss in late trading, closing down 7.32%. Optical communication stock Lumentum fell 7.61%, and both Intel and AMD fell more than 5%.

There was a string of familiar faces on the loss list: Nvidia fell 3.55%, TSMC fell 4.5%, Broadcom fell 2.78%, and SK Hynix fell 2.6%. Data center liquid cooling concept stock Vertiv fell over 17%. Q2 revenue rose 24% year-over-year, which wasn't bad on paper, but unfortunately was slightly lower than the market's original estimates. Since this stock's gain was too fierce this year, even a slight miss would be amplified into a reason for selling.

Coke and Energy Stocks Strengthen Against Trend, Chinese Concept Stocks Lead for Three Consecutive Days

In contrast to the sharp decline of chip stocks, Coca-Cola rose 0.92% to hit a new historical high again. Energy stocks also generally rose over 2% as Middle East tensions heated up. Chinese concept stocks continued the strong trend from the past three days, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closing up 1.73%. Cryptocurrencies performed steadily that day: Bitcoin opened at $63,853.49, up 0.2%; Ethereum opened at $1,919.73, up 1.5%.

A Market Hammered by One Sentence, Sentiment More Important Than Numbers

The most memorable thing about this day was the speed of the market sentiment shift; the closing numbers themselves were secondary. Before early morning, the trend was still rising; one sentence turned it into a late trading plunge. This shows that the current market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks has reached an extreme, where any slight disturbance can rewrite the day's trend within minutes.

Microsoft and Meta delivered completely opposite report cards on the same day, confirming the pricing logic that has repeatedly appeared in recent weeks. Investors are no longer satisfied with looking at revenue numbers; what truly determines stock price direction is whether the math between capital expenditure and output adds up. Microsoft gave a clear answer relying on Azure's growth rate, while Meta left a question mark on this issue.

Warsh's calculation to drag the decision to September is quite loud, but whether this account will ultimately go as planned is key in Trump's hands. It depends on what actions he takes against Iran next, and whether oil prices will disrupt the inflation line again.

The fifth consecutive day of decline in chip stocks also indicates that this trust crisis, which earliest exploded from the storage segment, has not truly ended yet. Tomorrow's earnings reports from Apple and Amazon will be the next key testing point.