Embracing the Golden Age: A Look at Bitwise's Top 10 Predictions for 2025
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Embracing the Golden Age: A Look at Bitwise's Top 10 Predictions for 2025
We are seeing a brighter future: 2025 will usher in the golden age of crypto.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCompiled & Edited: Pzai, Foresight News
2024 has been a landmark year for crypto: cryptocurrency prices surged to all-time highs, spot Bitcoin ETFs marked the most successful ETF launch in history, and pro-crypto politicians triumphed in Washington. But we see an even brighter future ahead: 2025 will usher in the golden age of crypto. Below are our 10 predictions for the coming year.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Will Reach All-Time Highs
The three leading assets in crypto—Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana—outperformed all major asset classes in 2024, rising 141.72%, 75.77%, and 127.71% respectively. In comparison, the S&P 500 returned 28.07%, gold 27.65%, and bonds 3.40%. We expect this momentum to continue into 2025, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all reaching new all-time highs. Our projected price targets are as follows:
Bitcoin – $200,000
Record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs propelled Bitcoin to all-time highs in 2024. We believe this trend won’t slow down anytime soon (see below). Combine this demand with reduced supply from the April 2024 halving, plus new purchases by corporations and governments… well, we’ve seen this movie before. (Note: If the U.S. government implements its proposal to establish a strategic reserve of one million Bitcoin, $200,000 could quickly become $500,000 or more.)
Ethereum – $7,000
Despite Ethereum’s 75.77% rise in 2024, the second-largest crypto asset lost favor with many investors who either shifted focus to Bitcoin or turned toward rapidly growing competing blockchains. However, as Warren Buffett said: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." We anticipate a narrative shift for Ethereum in 2025, driven by accelerating activity on Layer 2 blockchains like Base and Starknet, multi-billion dollar inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs, and potentially a surge in Ethereum-based stablecoins and tokenization projects.
Solana – $750
The phoenix of crypto rose from the ashes of the 2022 market crash, soaring to new heights in 2024 fueled by meme coin mania—making GameStop's legendary rally look mild by comparison. We believe Solana’s momentum is only beginning to build. The catalyst in 2025 will be the migration of “serious” projects onto the network, complementing its dominance in meme coins. Early examples like Render have already shown explosive growth. We expect this trend to accelerate over the next year.
Catalysts and potential resistance in the crypto market
Bitcoin ETFs Will See Even Greater Inflows
When U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, ETF experts predicted first-year inflows between $5 billion and $15 billion. They surpassed that upper bound within six months. Since launch, these record-breaking ETFs have attracted $33.6 billion in inflows. We expect 2025 inflows to exceed even this number. Why? Three reasons:
The First Year Is Typically the Slowest
The best historical analogy for Bitcoin ETFs is the launch of gold ETFs in 2004. That year, gold ETFs started strong with $2.6 billion in flows—an exciting figure at the time. But look at subsequent years: Year 2 saw $5.5 billion, Year 3 $7.6 billion, Year 4 $8.7 billion, Year 5 $16.8 billion, and Year 6 $28.9 billion (inflation-adjusted). The point: Flows increased in Year 2 compared to Year 1—a pattern consistent with gold. Declining flows would be abnormal.
Major Brokerages Coming Online
For Bitcoin ETFs, the world’s largest brokerages—from Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch to Bank of America and Wells Fargo—have yet to unleash their armies of wealth managers. Investors largely remain cut off from these products. We believe this will change in 2025, as trillions of dollars under management at these firms begin flowing into Bitcoin ETFs.
Investors Are Scaling Up
After seven years helping investment professionals access crypto through Bitwise, we’ve observed a clear pattern: Most investors start with small allocations and gradually increase them. We suspect most who bought Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 will double down in 2025.
Coinbase Will Become the Largest Brokerage Firm
In 2023, investors could buy Coinbase stock for $35. Today, it trades at $344—an almost tenfold increase. We believe it can go much higher. Our prediction: By 2025, Coinbase stock will trade above $700 per share—more than double today’s price—surpassing Charles Schwab to become the world’s most valuable brokerage firm. Why? Because Coinbase is not just a brokerage. Three key catalysts will drive this transformation:
Stablecoins
Coinbase’s partnership with Circle, issuer of USDC, has fueled rapid growth in its stablecoin business. Stablecoin revenue has already surged to $162 million (up 31%). If our outlook on stablecoin adoption is correct, this trend will continue.
Base
Last year, Coinbase launched Base, a new EVM-compatible Layer 2 network. It now ranks second in both transaction volume and TVL. Growth brings revenue—significant revenue. Base now generates tens of millions in revenue each quarter. As more developers, users, and capital enter the ecosystem, we expect further increases.
Staking and Custody Services
As of Q3, these two business lines generated $589 million in revenue—$304 million (up 106%) more than the same period last year. Both are driven by asset balances and net new inflows. We expect substantial growth in 2025, pushing annual revenue from these services past $1 billion.
2025 Will Be the "Crypto IPO Year"
Initial public offerings (IPOs) in crypto have been quiet over the past few years. But we predict a wave of crypto unicorn IPOs will hit the market in 2025.
Why now? The backdrop for publicly traded crypto companies today is vastly different from previous years. Cryptocurrency prices are up, investor demand is growing, institutional adoption is surging, blockchain technology has gone mainstream, macro conditions are favorable, and perhaps most importantly, the political climate has warmed. This is the perfect recipe for industry giants to go public. Here are five companies likely to IPO in 2025:
Circle
Issuer of USDC—one of the largest stablecoins—Circle has been actively preparing for an IPO for some time. Its dominant position in the stablecoin market and expanding footprint in new financial services make an IPO highly likely.
FIGURE
Figure leverages blockchain technology to offer mortgage loans, personal loans, and asset tokenization. The company has reportedly explored IPO possibilities since 2023, and with Wall Street increasingly obsessed with tokenization, now may be the ideal moment.
Kraken
One of the largest U.S. crypto exchanges, Kraken has considered an IPO since at least 2021. Market conditions delayed plans, but renewed interest in 2025 could bring it back into focus.
Anchorage Digital
Anchorage provides infrastructure services for digital assets, serving a diverse client base including investment advisors, asset managers, and venture capital firms. Its status as a federally chartered bank and comprehensive crypto offerings position it well for a public listing.
Chainalysis
As the market leader in blockchain compliance and intelligence, Chainalysis is a prime IPO candidate in 2025. Its unique product suite and strong growth trajectory—amplified by increasing regulatory emphasis on compliance—make a public listing highly probable.
AI Agents Will Drive Meme Coin Explosions
Entering 2025, we’re poised for an even bigger meme coin frenzy than in 2024. For example, recent interaction between a16z’s Marc Andreessen and an autonomous chatbot named Truth Terminal led the AI agent to promote a little-known memecoin—GOAT. What began as a quirky experiment quickly grew into a $1.3+ billion market cap asset, demonstrating the immense potential when AI meets the wild world of memecoins.
But the most exciting breakthrough is Clanker—an AI agent designed to autonomously deploy tokens via Coinbase’s Layer 2 scaling solution, Base. Users simply tag Clanker in a post on Farcaster, instructing the AI to launch a token with a given name and image, and it deploys automatically. In less than a month, Clanker has already deployed over 11,000 tokens (generating over $10.3 million in fees). We believe AI-launched tokens will fuel the next wave of memecoin mania in 2025. Are these memecoins useful in the real world? Unlikely. Will most of them go to zero? Yes. But they represent a fascinating collision of two transformative technologies—AI and crypto—that deserves attention.
Nations Holding Bitcoin Will Double
We don’t know if the U.S. will establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve in 2025—but it’s certainly possible. Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed legislation requiring the U.S. to purchase one million Bitcoin over five years, and President-elect Trump supports the idea. Polymarket gives this less than a 30% chance, and who are we to argue with the wisdom of markets? Still, we believe it doesn’t matter.
The mere fact that the U.S. is seriously considering a Bitcoin strategic reserve could spark a global arms race, prompting governments worldwide to get in early. According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, nine countries currently hold Bitcoin (led by the U.S.). We expect that number to double by 2025.
Emerging Crypto Companies Will Enter Stock Indices
Most ordinary American investors have little exposure to crypto. Crypto is a new asset class, and many either don’t understand it or choose to stay away. But nearly every investor owns funds tracking the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100. Yet so far, these indices exclude the largest publicly traded crypto companies—Coinbase and MicroStrategy. We expect this to change as early as this month during the next major rebalancing of both indices. The impact could be significant.
Consider: $10 trillion in assets directly track the S&P 500, and another $6 trillion use it as a benchmark. If Coinbase is added, we estimate funds will need to buy approximately $15 billion worth of shares. The impact on MicroStrategy from inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 would be smaller due to relative fund sizes, but still substantial.
Relaxed 401(k) Rules Will Unlock Massive Liquidity
In March 2022, the U.S. Department of Labor issued guidance “reminding 401(k) plan fiduciaries of the significant risks associated with adding cryptocurrency investment options to their plans.” The DOL even stated it would “initiate a program of targeted investigations to protect participants from these risks.” With a new administration in Washington, we expect the DOL to soften this stance. There are at least 800 billion reasons why.
America’s 401(k) plans hold $8 trillion in assets—with more money flowing in weekly. If crypto captures just 1% of 401(k) assets, that’s $80 billion in new capital entering the sector—and ongoing inflows thereafter. At 3%, it reaches $240 billion. That’s a massive deal.
Stablecoin Market Cap Will Hit $400 Billion
The stablecoin boom in 2025 will push the market cap to $400 billion or beyond. Four catalysts will drive this growth:
Stablecoin Legislation
For pro-crypto policymakers in Washington, passing comprehensive stablecoin legislation is low-hanging fruit. Who should regulate them? What are appropriate reserve requirements? Once resolved, traditional banking giants like JPMorgan are expected to enter the space.
Fintech Applications
Payment giant Stripe acquired stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1 billion in October, calling stablecoins “superconductors of financial services” due to their speed, accessibility, and low cost. PayPal launched its own stablecoin (PYUSD) in 2023, and Robinhood recently announced plans to partner with crypto firms on a global stablecoin network. As stablecoins integrate into popular fintech apps, we’re seeing AUM and transaction volumes surge.
Global Trade and Remittances
Stablecoins are already disrupting global payments and remittances. In 2024, stablecoin transaction volume reached $8.3 trillion—second only to Visa’s $9.9 trillion. Moreover, Tether recently used its USDT to fund a $45 million crude oil trade, clearly signaling stablecoins’ potential in large-scale global commerce. As digital dollars disrupt these massive markets, demand for stablecoins will grow.
Bull Market Expansion
Finally, the most obvious catalyst: the bull market. Stablecoin AUM tends to expand alongside the broader crypto economy. Given our bullish outlook for 2025, we’re equally bullish on stablecoins.
RWA Market Will Exceed $50 Billion
Three years ago, tokenized real-world assets (RWAs)—such as private credit, U.S. Treasuries, commodities, and equities—in crypto were valued at less than $2 billion. Today, the market stands at $137 billion. What’s driving such explosive growth? Why tokenize RWAs—representing real assets on blockchains? Because it enables instant settlement, drastically lower costs than traditional securitization, 24/7 liquidity, and enhanced transparency and access across nearly all asset classes. This explains why Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock—once a Bitcoin skeptic—is now crypto’s biggest advocate for tokenization, declaring, “The next generation of markets will be tokenized securities.” Let that sink in: These are the words of the head of the world’s largest asset manager.
In our view, Wall Street has only begun to grasp this opportunity, meaning major institutional capital will soon flood into tokenized RWAs. We project the tokenized RWA market to surpass $50 billion in 2025, with potential for exponential growth. Venture firm ParaFi recently forecast the RWA market to reach $2 trillion by 2030, while the Global Financial Markets Association predicts $16 trillion.
Bitcoin Will Surpass $1 Million by 2029
When making predictions, people often focus on the next year. But why stop there? As long-term crypto investors at Bitwise, let’s look further ahead. We believe Bitcoin will surpass the total market cap of gold by 2029. Based on gold’s current valuation, that means Bitcoin will exceed $1 million per coin. Why 2029? Historically, Bitcoin moves in four-year cycles. While no guarantee, 2029 marks the peak of the next cycle—and coincides with Bitcoin’s 20th anniversary. If the U.S. announces a plan to buy one million Bitcoin for a strategic reserve, Bitcoin could reach $1 million even faster.
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