Crypto Morning News: Bitfinex reports Bitcoin bottom could be between $40,000 and $50,000; DeFi protocol fees dropped 24% MoM in August
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Crypto Morning News: Bitfinex reports Bitcoin bottom could be between $40,000 and $50,000; DeFi protocol fees dropped 24% MoM in August
Arthur Hayes: RRP rate higher than short-term Treasury yields could lead to a 10% drop in Bitcoin.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: TechFlow
Weekend Market Updates
Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Bottom Likely Between $40,000 and $50,000
Bitfinex released a report stating, "The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this month is expected to significantly impact Bitcoin’s short-term volatility and long-term trajectory. Since early August, Bitcoin has risen over 32%, primarily driven by traders anticipating dovish remarks from the Fed. A 25-basis-point rate cut could mark the beginning of a typical easing cycle, potentially leading to higher long-term Bitcoin prices due to increased liquidity and reduced recession concerns. On the other hand, a larger 50-basis-point cut might trigger an immediate price surge in Bitcoin, followed by a potential pullback as recession fears intensify. Over the past week, we have observed spot holders reducing risk exposure, while speculators in perpetual futures markets attempt to 'buy the dip.' We continue to see substantial long open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts. If we were to make a prediction, we would caution that a 15–20% decline may occur during this month's rate cut, with Bitcoin’s bottom likely between $40,000 and $50,000. This is not an arbitrary figure but based on the observation that peak return percentages in each cycle have decreased by approximately 60–70%, and average bull market corrections are also shrinking. However, this logic could easily be invalidated if macroeconomic conditions shift. For traders, these moments are filled with uncertainty."
Daniel Wu, First Investor in “Black Myth: Wukong”: I’d Never Invest in Web3 Games—Those People Don’t Truly Love Gaming
Daniel Wu (Dan), the first investor in "Black Myth: Wukong," recently shared his thoughts on ZhenFund's comment about how new technological trends like Web3 gaming and AI gaming often fail to succeed when combined with games. Daniel believes it's always “games plus something else,” and investors should focus more on the team rather than being misled by new tech trends. He said he has seen many game entrepreneurs shift into the Web3 space after its rise, but he “would never invest” in such projects. He explained, “If someone doesn’t truly love games, how can they possibly create a good one?” Regarding future opportunities in game investing, Daniel believes we need to wait two to three years for the transformation brought by AIGC.
Sun Yuchen Unveils Preliminary SunPump Revenue Distribution Plan: All Profits to Be Returned to Community
This morning, TRON founder Sun Yuchen unveiled the preliminary revenue distribution plan for the SunPump protocol. Under the proposal, all SunPump revenues will be fully returned to the community through liquidity donations. Specifically, the revenue will be used entirely to repurchase SUN tokens, add SUN/TRX liquidity on Sunswap V2, and send the obtained LP tokens to a burn address, ensuring the liquidity can never be withdrawn. Sun stated this method enhances compliance, continuously accumulates liquidity, and stabilizes the SUN token price, allowing SUN to grow alongside the TRON network. The proposal is currently at an initial stage and will be submitted to the community for discussion, with formal implementation only after final voting approval. Sun also pledged that transaction hashes for every liquidity donation operation will be publicly disclosed.
LayerZero Foundation Launches New Community Program, Distributing 5 Million ZRO Tokens to Reward Ecosystem Builders
The LayerZero Foundation announced on X the official launch of the LayerZero Community Program. This initiative aims to incentivize community participation and promote diversified ecosystem development. A total of 5 million ZRO tokens will be allocated as rewards throughout the program period, offering millions of ZRO tokens to community members during the activation phase. Community members who joined before June will receive an initial allocation of 25,000 ZRO each. The program introduces three new roles: Community Member, Builder, and Content Creator. Existing members must complete a role migration process to qualify for rewards, while new members can select appropriate roles in preparation for the next reward distribution round.
Ethena Labs’ Season 2 Airdrop Ends on September 2
Ethena Labs announced that its Season 2 airdrop concluded on September 2, with 5% of the total ENA supply distributed as Q2 rewards. Points accumulation for Q3 will automatically begin on September 2. Users can claim their ENA tokens via claim.ethena.fi starting September 30.
Arthur Hayes: RRP Rate Higher Than T-Bills Could Cause Bitcoin to Drop 10%
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, posted on social media analyzing why the Fed’s rate-cut plans fell short of expectations. He noted that since Powell announced a September rate cut, Bitcoin has dropped 10%, likely because the overnight Reverse Repo (RRP) rate at 5.3% is higher than short-term Treasury yields. This has led capital to flow from Treasuries into RRP, negatively impacting liquidity. Hayes expects this trend to persist as long as Treasury yields remain below RRP rates. He will further discuss this topic during today’s KBW keynote speech.
Scroll Ecosystem Project Pencils Protocol Raises Funds at $80M Valuation, Plans Advanced Vault and Auction Platform
According to official news, Scroll-based project Pencils Protocol has completed a new funding round at an $80 million valuation. Investors include Taisu Ventures, DePIN X, Bing Ventures, and Black GM Capital. Currently the top native project by TVL in the Scroll ecosystem, Pencils Protocol is a one-stop yield aggregator and auction platform built on Scroll, featuring asset aggregation and distribution, leveraged yield, auctions, and more, aiming to maximize users’ asset utilization. The protocol plans to launch advanced vaults and an innovative auction platform, seeking to revolutionize yield optimization and asset bidding. Previously, in May, Pencils Protocol raised $2.1 million in a seed round from OKX Ventures, Animoca Brands, and others.
Data: August DeFi Protocol Fees Down 24% MoM, Lowest in Six Months
According to The Block, decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol fees totaled $288 million in August 2024, down 24.4% from July and marking the lowest level since February. Lido led with $76.18 million in fee revenue, followed by Uniswap, Jito, and PancakeSwap. Independent market researcher Nick Ruck attributed the decline in sustainable yields from DeFi protocols and traders shifting toward meme coins as the main reasons. During the same period, total DeFi revenue also declined 19.7% to $59.53 million. Additionally, Bitcoin miner revenue continued to fall in August, totaling $851 million, down 10.5% month-over-month.
Market Overview
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