Unveiling the Ghost Month Market Pattern: Seven Consecutive Years of Declines, and This Year Begins with a "Ghost" Again
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Unveiling the Ghost Month Market Pattern: Seven Consecutive Years of Declines, and This Year Begins with a "Ghost" Again
Since 2017, Bitcoin has fallen sharply for seven consecutive years during the "Ghost Month" (the seventh lunar month), with an average monthly decline of nearly 20%. This year's Ghost Month runs from August 4 to September 2.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: @honey_xbt
Translated by: Nicky, Foresight News
Original article written on September 14, 2023
Throughout history, each month carries unique cultural meanings and folk legends. The seventh lunar month—known as "Ghost Month"—attracts particular attention due to its mysterious aura. But what happens when this supernatural atmosphere intersects with the volatility of the Bitcoin market?
It must be clearly stated that "Ghost Month," as a cultural phenomenon, does not directly influence market movements. However, people's psychological expectations, risk preferences, and even capital flows may be indirectly affected by this cultural factor, thereby exerting some degree of influence on the market. So how has Bitcoin historically performed during Ghost Month? Has it followed the enigmatic reputation of this period, or shown surprising rationality and stability?
In Asian culture, the seventh lunar month is often considered an inauspicious time for major activities. In this article, the author analyzes Bitcoin’s price trends during Ghost Month. Below are the findings:
In 2017, Ghost Month ran from August 22 to September 19. During this period, Bitcoin’s price plummeted from a high near $5,000 to around $3,000—a nearly 40% decline.
In 2018, Ghost Month lasted from August 11 to September 9. Bitcoin dropped from a peak near $7,400 to around $6,200—a decline of nearly 16%.
In 2019, Ghost Month spanned from August 1 to August 29. Bitcoin fell from a high near $12,000 to around $9,500—a drop of nearly 21%.
In 2020, Ghost Month ran from August 19 to September 16. Bitcoin declined from a high near $12,000 to around $10,000—a fall of nearly 17%.
In 2021, Ghost Month lasted from August 8 to September 6. Bitcoin dropped from a peak near $52,000 to around $44,000—a decline of nearly 15%.
In 2022, Ghost Month ran from July 29 to August 26. Bitcoin fell from a high near $25,000 to around $20,000—a decline of nearly 20%.
In 2023, Ghost Month began on August 16. Interestingly, the very next day, Bitcoin plunged from a high near $29,000 to around $25,000. A closer look reveals that Bitcoin had already declined approximately 15% during the month.
September has historically been a negative month for Bitcoin, possibly linked to Ghost Month. Since the seventh lunar month—commonly known as Ghost Month—often falls in September, this could contribute to Bitcoin’s underperformance and negative returns during this period.
Today, the second day of Ghost Month in 2024, Bitcoin’s price has again seen a significant drop—further reinforcing the market instability typically observed during this time.
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