10,000-Word Research Report: Is the Bull Market Over? Exploring Potential Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year
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10,000-Word Research Report: Is the Bull Market Over? Exploring Potential Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year
This article combines current market highlights with insights into future trends.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Wilson Lee, Core Contributor of Biteye
Editor: Crush, Core Contributor of Biteye
Community: @BiteyeCN
* Approximately 10,000 words, estimated reading time 15 minutes
The first half of 2024 is coming to an end amid a crypto market correction and consolidation. In this cycle, BTC surged rapidly due to ETF inflows, while altcoins underperformed relatively. Many retail investors who missed the BTC rally frequently complain about "lacking participation."
As the market continues to correct and consolidate—especially with many altcoins losing nearly all gains from the past six months—new opportunities may be quietly emerging.
This article combines current market trends and insights into future developments to highlight sectors and assets worth watching in the second half of the year. The views expressed are our current opinions only.
01 Macro Perspective: Bull Market Likely Not Over Yet, Risks and Opportunities Coexist
At the beginning of this cycle, three core drivers—ETFs, BTC halving, and interest rate cuts—have become widely recognized.
From last October’s false report by a well-known media outlet claiming “ETF approval” that ignited the market, to the actual approval of BTC ETFs in early January, market sentiment around ETFs dominated price movements and trading dynamics.
April's BTC halving did not cause significant volatility due to ongoing geopolitical tensions at the time.
With the first two catalysts now realized, they are unlikely to reignite the market again.
Therefore, speculation around rate cut expectations and the resulting improvement in liquidity will be the biggest external driver for the next phase of the crypto market.
For most crypto investors, profiting from short-term volatility around data releases may not be the primary strategy. Instead, it's sufficient to recognize that rate cut tailwinds remain on the horizon over the longer term, indicating the bull market likely isn't over yet—and that corrections and consolidations signal the incubation of new opportunities.
Comparing the current pullback with the previous cycle, BTC currently appears technically bearish with a concerning “M-top” pattern. However, the depth of correction is far less severe than the prior cycle’s drawdown of over 50%, and the duration has also been significantly shorter.
From a risk perspective, BTC’s correction remains shallow compared to last cycle and could extend further under additional negative external factors, potentially testing lower support levels.
From an opportunity standpoint, the “M-top” formed quickly and shallowly, and with rate cut expectations still alive, the market is likely gathering strength for its next upward leg—especially as BTC found support around $55,000.
Long-term opportunities likely still exist; capital preservation and strategic accumulation will determine returns in the next wave.
Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/mBmRDBZW/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT
02 Meme: The Highest-Reward Sector This Cycle
2.1 Sector Background & Core Logic
The wealth creation stories of $DOGE and $SHIB have long captivated the industry and often serve as gateways for new users entering crypto.
Memecoins have gained even greater prominence this cycle, evolving into one of crypto’s core sectors in terms of market cap and trading volume.
The total market cap of Meme assets has surpassed $50 billion, accompanied by over $4 billion in daily trading volume.
Looking at the rankings within Memecoins, we see that tokens after $DOGE and $SHIB are mostly new stars from this cycle, further confirming the strong performance of memecoins this round.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/meme-token
In terms of sector returns, Memecoins have outperformed other popular narratives like RWA, AI, and DePIN.
Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uy6y45d9rinmxkoCj7d1EQ
The main reason memecoins are so popular among investors this cycle is their superior risk-reward profile.
Easier early access for retail: As the crypto venture ecosystem expands, VC firms increasingly inflate project valuations, squeezing retail profit margins. In contrast, memecoin token distributions tend to be fairer, giving retail more chances to acquire meaningful positions, reducing initial cost disadvantages.
No valuation limits, vast imagination: Most memecoins lack real utility or business models—their value is driven purely by market speculation and narrative momentum.
Low consensus barrier: Memecoins are simple and easy to understand, requiring no deep fundamental analysis, making them accessible to the broadest investor base. Additionally, they can instantly capture real-world trends, continuously attracting attention and capital.
The risks of memecoins include massive token supplies, difficulty identifying high-conviction projects, and extreme volatility—offering high returns but also extremely high risks.
2.2 Assets to Watch
Memecoins are hard to value or categorize, so below we classify promising ones based on current market cap.
Compared to established blue-chips like $DOGE and $SHIB, newer memecoins rising this cycle offer better opportunities.
2.2.1 Blue-Chip Tier: $PEPE, $WIF
$PEPE, one of the standout memecoins this cycle, has shown exceptionally strong price performance.
As a meme widely shared across social media platforms, $PEPE carries high recognition and cultural relevance.
From both pump consensus and cultural resonance perspectives, $PEPE stands out as the top memecoin investment choice.
Additionally, with a current market cap of ~$5.3 billion, $PEPE still has room to grow toward the peak valuations seen by $DOGE or $SHIB, offering solid upside potential and market acceptance.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pepe
$WIF, one of Solana’s most iconic memecoins, has also delivered strong performance this cycle.
Its hat-wearing dog形象 has become deeply embedded in internet culture, spawning numerous derivative hat-themed memecoins.
$WIF frequently shows strong rebounds after downturns, making it a go-to dip-buying target for many investors.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogwifhat
2.2.2 Mid-to-Small Cap: $DOG, $BOME
$DOG, the leading asset in the Runes sector, could explode alongside a broader BTC rally.
As an upgraded version of inscriptions, Runes may replicate the FOMO effect seen earlier, easily triggering excitement among retail investors.
Additionally, being labeled a “new asset” and having unlisted exchange listing expectations could become key drivers for $DOG’s price appreciation.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dog-go-to-the-moon-runes-2
$BOME is another representative asset of this cycle—setting records by listing on Binance within three days and surpassing a $1 billion market cap, sparking a new trend in presale fundraising and earning a prominent place in investor minds.
$BOME belongs to the same PEPE-inspired culture. Its current market cap is roughly one-tenth of $PEPE’s. Although it peaked early, it hasn’t launched a second wave—giving $BOME notable breakout potential.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/book-of-meme
03 AI / DePIN: Riding the AI Development Wave
3.1 Sector Background & Core Logic
The explosive growth of ChatGPT fully ignited the entire AI industry, elevating AI’s impact on humanity to the level of a “Fourth Industrial Revolution.” This AI boom is directly and profoundly influencing the crypto space through two core mechanisms: digital economy integration and hardware demand.
As AI becomes increasingly integrated into daily work and life, computational power constraints are becoming more apparent, driving up valuations for companies like NVIDIA.
Computing hardware is also a cornerstone of the crypto industry. Before AI took off, crypto mining itself had already fueled NVIDIA’s rapid growth.
As the crypto industry evolved, computing capacity became surplus—an excess now being absorbed by AI applications.
Moreover, AI task execution, resource allocation, and data input occur entirely in the digital realm, making benefit distribution difficult to define under traditional frameworks—a challenge we refer to here as digital economic disputes.
Crypto’s inherent features—such as transparent accounting and Proof of Work—are naturally suited to resolving such disputes and coordinating利益 conflicts behind AI software and hardware.
The AI surge has given Crypto, previously stuck in a bear market, a clear direction. A wave of decentralized AI compute and algorithm projects has emerged, forming today’s AI/DePIN sector.
As the AI/DePIN sector becomes increasingly intertwined with AI, actions by companies like NVIDIA and OpenAI now influence related token markets. With advances in AI technology and new trends emerging, the crypto sector will evolve alongside the broader AI landscape.
3.2 Assets to Watch
Currently, Crypto x AI projects span every aspect of AI. Below we analyze promising assets across three categories: compute supply, algorithms, and AI economics.
3.2.1 Compute Supply
Current AI products rely on large language models (LLMs), which in turn depend on GPU computing power. The crypto industry already holds substantial computing infrastructure and can use blockchain incentives to build decentralized compute markets, providing alternative sources of AI compute.
Keywords like distributed and idle computing define crypto’s role in compute provision, with the core narrative being cost reduction.
3.2.1.1 Arweave/AO
Arweave, a veteran storage project, maintains its position as a leader in the storage sector thanks to its robust ecosystem and competitive pricing.
With the launch of its compute platform AO, Arweave has officially entered the distributed computing market, becoming a key compute-themed token.
Compared to other compute projects, AO can leverage Arweave’s existing storage strengths, enabling tight integration between computation and storage layers—critical for on-chain LLM processing.
Furthermore, AO features aggressive design choices in parallel computing and message passing, giving it superior performance over other distributed compute platforms. Thus, AO enjoys inherent advantages in compute capability.
AO’s platform launch and associated PR campaigns have driven $AR’s price higher, demonstrating strong market confidence in AO.
As Crypto x AI continues to grow, $AR/AO is poised to become one of the most promising AI tokens.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/arweave
3.2.1.2 io.net
Recently listed on Binance, io.net is currently the hottest player in the sector. io.net is a decentralized GPU network designed to provide massive computing power for machine learning applications.
Their vision is to unlock fair access to computing power by aggregating over a million GPUs from independent data centers, crypto miners, and projects like Filecoin—making computing more scalable, accessible, and efficient.
io.net offers a radically different cloud computing model, leveraging decentralization to give users greater control and flexibility, with permissionless access and low costs.
According to io.net, their compute costs are up to 90% lower than centralized providers like AWS. These combined factors make io.net a standout among decentralized compute providers.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/io-net
3.2.2 Algorithms
3.2.2.1 Bittensor
Bittensor is a decentralized network connecting global machine learning models. By combining multiple specialized AI models, it improves accuracy and efficiency in solving complex problems. This approach leverages each model’s unique strengths, producing more precise and comprehensive results than traditional single-model methods.
Bittensor also achieves scalability through ecosystem development, currently supporting 32 subnets tailored to various vertical use cases.
Bittensor’s innovative work in algorithms and ecosystem building effectively harnesses decentralization for AI advancement. With a market cap near $6 billion, it represents a relatively stable investment option.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bittensor
3.2.3 AI Economics
3.2.3.1 Artificial Superintelligence Alliance ($ASI)
$ASI is the merged entity of three established Crypto x AI projects: Ocean Protocol ($OCEAN), SingularityNET ($AGIX), and Fetch.ai ($FET).
After the merger, these teams will form the Superintelligence Collective, led by SingularityNET founder Dr. Ben Goertzel as CEO. The three projects will continue operating independently but will closely collaborate within the shared $ASI token ecosystem and under the Superintelligence Collective’s coordination.
The merger announcement provided little detail on new joint initiatives.
According to Ben Goertzel on social media, the post-merger focus will center on AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and ASI (Artificial Superintelligence)—the reason behind the new ticker symbol $ASI.
Token Conversion Details:
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$FET will convert to $ASI at a 1:1 ratio
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$AGIX and $OCEAN will convert to $ASI at approximately 1:0.433
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$FET, as the foundational token of the alliance, will be directly rebranded as $ASI, with an additional 1.48 billion tokens minted—867 million allocated to $AGIX holders and 611 million to $OCEAN holders
Fetch.ai brings mature experience in AI agents. On February 20, Deutsche Telekom announced a partnership with the Fetch.ai Foundation, becoming its first corporate ally, with subsidiary MMS joining as a validator.
Earlier this month, Fetch also launched a $100 million infrastructure initiative called “Fetch Compute,” deploying Nvidia H200, H100, and A100 GPUs to build a developer-accessible compute platform.
Ocean Protocol has built modular services for decentralized data sharing, access control, and payments. Its Predictoor product reportedly generated over $800 million in sales within six months of launch.
SingularityNET has explored AGI more deeply than the others pre-merger, with its AGI team and partners TrueAGI and OpenCog Community focusing since 2020 on developing the AGI framework OpenCog Hyperon. SingularityNET plans to launch a decentralized AI platform this year aimed at creating an ideal environment for running AGI systems.
The merger of three seasoned, capable projects makes ASI a powerhouse combination. With aligned operations and economic synergy, ASI is well-positioned to lead in Crypto x AI and maximize capture of the “attention” spillover from broader AI advancements.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/artificial-superintelligence-alliance
04 RWA: The Inevitable Path to Blockchain Mass Adoption
4.1 Sector Background & Core Logic
RWA is the critical sector linking blockchain with the real world. In the long run, it's essential for mass blockchain adoption; in the short term, it injects significant capital and liquidity into both crypto and traditional markets.
RWA involves tokenizing illiquid real-world assets and bringing them onto blockchains. These assets provide crypto markets with tangible value backing, potential capital inflows, and yield-bearing instruments that enhance overall returns.
For traditional assets, tokenization offers a new mechanism for liquidation, allowing otherwise illiquid assets to be arbitraged or quickly settled.
The capital inflow from BTC ETFs has already demonstrated strong external interest in crypto. As representative RWA use cases emerge, the sector is poised for explosive growth.
4.2 Assets to Watch
4.2.1 Ondo Finance
Ondo Finance is a decentralized finance platform focused on RWA. Using blockchain technology, Ondo creates transparent investment infrastructure for institutional investors, aiming to become an on-chain investment bank offering diverse RWA products—including bonds, real estate, and commodities—to meet varied investor needs.
As the RWA market grows rapidly, Ondo Finance, as an early mover, holds immense growth potential.
Its transparent and efficient platform will continue attracting institutional investors, accelerating market maturity and expansion.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ondo
4.2.2 Swarm Markets
Swarm Markets is a blockchain platform offering digitization and trading solutions for traditional finance.
It tokenizes physical assets like U.S. Treasuries and stocks and provides legally compliant trading infrastructure.
Swarm Markets is the first DeFi platform globally licensed by BaFin (Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority), ensuring compliance with financial regulations.
As more traditional financial assets get tokenized, Swarm Markets’ compliant and diversified trading platform is set to gain increasing market share.
Its innovative financial solutions will keep attracting both institutional and retail investors, fueling sustained growth.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/swarm-markets
05 Social: User Growth Potential and Ecosystem Nurturing
5.1 Sector Background & Core Logic
Whether in Web2 or Web3, social is one of the most important and foundational sectors.
For the industry, social enables user onboarding and retention through organic networks.
For apps and services, social drives growth, retention, and increased user stickiness.
Currently, Web3’s penetration remains low, and improving user retention and engagement is a key challenge. Social is a primary solution to these issues.
In previous cycles, many social projects were attempted, but none achieved breakout success.
This cycle, however, technologies lowering user barriers and infrastructures ensuring performance and UX have matured dramatically—making it highly likely that social will finally deliver major breakthroughs.
5.2 Assets to Watch
5.2.1 TON and Its Ecosystem Projects
TON (The Open Network), the only blockchain officially supported by messaging giant Telegram, leverages Telegram’s massive 900 million monthly active users to build unique narratives around payments, social, and mini-apps.
TON avoids user migration friction by integrating directly with Telegram’s existing social graph, enabling Web3 to reshape Web2 business models seamlessly.
Currently in early development, the TON ecosystem has already produced high-traffic projects like Notcoin and Catizen, showcasing the vast user base inherited from Telegram.
Thus, TON and its ecosystem are likely to further activate Telegram’s user base and foster a thriving ecosystem.
For deeper analysis, see Biteye’s previous article:"From Web2 to Web3: How TON Is Reshaping the Future of Social and Payments"
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/toncoin
5.2.2 Farcaster
Farcaster is a decentralized social networking protocol using smart contracts and hybrid storage to enable user connections, content sharing, and data ownership, while supporting flexible client and app development.
Farcaster isn’t new—it’s a battle-tested leader that emerged victorious from years of competition.
After opening registration in October last year, Farcaster gained widespread attention this year due to progress in data, ecosystem growth, and funding, solidifying its position as the social sector leader.
For deeper analysis, see Biteye’s previous article:"Can Farcaster, the $1B Valued Social Leader, Become the Next Bull Market Breakout?"
5.2.3 UXLINK
UXLINK is a dApp focused on close-knit social interactions. Leveraging Telegram’s smooth UX and a clear “friend-referral” growth strategy, UXLINK has achieved remarkable user metrics. In the latter half of the bull market, UXLINK has huge potential for user explosion.
For deeper analysis, see Biteye’s previous article:"Understanding the Web3 Social Monster: UXLINK"
Source: https://x.com/Coin98Analytics/status/1803363935875375499
06 LSD/LSDfi: Where Incremental Capital Lands
6.1 Sector Background & Core Logic
LSD/LSDfi are core components of ETH ecosystem yield. With ETH ETF approval imminent, we expect massive inflows driving ETH prices higher, likely boosting LSD/LSDfi activity and making it a direct beneficiary of incremental capital.
6.2 Assets to Watch
6.2.1 Lido/Rocket Pool
As the two leading LSD players, their brands are trusted by whales and institutions alike, positioning them to dominate ETH staking growth and capture the lion’s share of market share.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/lido-dao
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/rocket-pool
6.2.2 Ether.fi
Ether.fi is a fully self-custodial and decentralized LSD protocol. Unlike other liquid staking protocols, ether.fi allows participants to retain control of their keys and withdraw from validators anytime to reclaim their ETH.
While maintaining full self-custody, ether.fi automatically re-stakes user deposits on EigenLayer to boost yields, further protecting users' economic interests.
Thanks to full self-custody and strong yields backed by EigenLayer, Ether.fi has significant potential to capture market share in the next growth phase.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ether-fi
6.2.3 EigenLayer
As the pioneer of restaking, EigenLayer propelled LSD into LSDfi, adding another layer of yield on top of Ethereum’s ecosystem.
The LST ecosystem built around EigenLayer is certain to benefit from the incremental inflows brought by ETH ETFs. Token distribution has been finalized, and mainnet launch should be imminent.
6.2.4 Renzo
Renzo is a restaking protocol built on EigenLayer, designed to simplify the complex process of restaking for end users.
By introducing the liquid restaking token ezETH, Renzo removes the need for users to actively manage operators or reward strategies, offering higher yields and liquidity.
As a key player in the LRT ecosystem with backing from Binance, Renzo currently offers an attractive market cap.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/renzo
6.2.5 StakeStone
StakeStone is a comprehensive LSD/LSDfi project. It integrates major staking pools, Re-Stake, and blue-chip DeFi yield strategies to provide a highly adaptable base asset for any protocol needing LSD liquidity.
Users can stake ETH to receive STONE tokens and earn both native staking rewards and DeFi strategy yields.
Additionally, StakeStone supports multi-chain operations, enhancing liquidity and adaptability, giving it a unique edge in accessing new ecosystems and early incentives.
Backed by Binance, StakeStone has a decent chance of listing on Binance post-launch. Combined with growing fundamentals, it presents a high-upside opportunity.
6.2.6 Karak
Karak Network is a restaking network similar to EigenLayer, using a points-based system to incentivize users to restake and earn multiple yield streams.
In December 2023, Karak raised $48 million in a Series A round led by Lightspeed Venture Partners, with participation from Mubadala Capital, Coinbase, and others. Mubadala is Abu Dhabi’s second-largest fund, and this round valued Karak at over $1 billion.
A strong team and impressive backers suggest Karak has the potential to compete directly with EigenLayer—and create corresponding opportunities.
6.2.7 Pendle Finance
Pendle introduced yield tokenization and trading, separating yield from principal and creating a new paradigm for LSD participation.
Pendle’s multi-pool design and risk management tools help users hedge against losses and reduce volatility in DeFi markets.
With ETH ETF approval imminent, massive inflows into ETH will drive growth in the LSD/LSDfi ecosystem. As part of this ecosystem, Pendle stands to benefit significantly.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pendle
07 BTC Ecosystem
7.1 Sector Background & Core Logic
The explosion of the BTC ecosystem is one of the most striking features of this cycle. Inscriptions reignited market enthusiasm, followed by a flood of BTC L2s and new asset types. BTC staking/restaking gained traction amid the rise of ETH LSD/LSDfi and hot BTC-native assets, while Runes shined during the halving event.
All these efforts share a common goal: activating idle BTC capital and building a richer, more vibrant ecosystem.
However, with BTC correcting and inscription-driven wealth creation raising market expectations, the BTC ecosystem has cooled down recently.
As market conditions improve, we believe the BTC ecosystem will produce another breakout asset, creating massive opportunities.
7.2 Opportunities to Watch
7.2.1 Runes: $DOG
See Meme section. Runes sentiment was heavily influenced by inscriptions, with market performance described as “peak at launch.” As the leader in the Runes space, $DOG offers both upside and relative defensive characteristics—making it the only Rune we recommend for now.
7.2.2 Others
Most BTC L2s haven’t developed active ecosystems, and BTC staking opportunities remain unclear—we recommend waiting for the market to pick winners.
08 Summary & Outlook
The crypto market is no longer isolated—it is increasingly integrating into the real economy. When analyzing crypto opportunities, we increasingly recognize the importance of external macro drivers.
During market shifts and adjustments, it’s crucial to first understand where we are in the cycle and what internal and external forces might drive the next phase.
During consolidation and pullbacks, we shouldn’t let fear dictate decisions. Instead, we should focus on uncovering the opportunities hidden beneath the declines.
We’ve summarized these sectors and opportunities worth watching in the second half of the year, hoping to provide readers with valuable insights.
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