Analyst analyzes Bitcoin adoption curve:有望 to rival the US dollar by 2030
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Analyst analyzes Bitcoin adoption curve:有望 to rival the US dollar by 2030
If following the internet's S-curve development, BTC may still be in its early stage.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsSource: bitcoinist
Compiled by: Blockchain Knight
An analyst has explained when BTC could grow along a historical adoption curve sufficient to rival the US dollar (USD).
In a recent post on X, analyst Willy Woo discussed financial markets' current expectations for the original crypto asset. He noted, "The financial world now views BTC as a rapidly rising asset class. However, the token’s total market capitalization is currently around $1.2 trillion."
The analyst pointed out that asset classes are typically valued in the "tens of trillions."
Woo believes these expectations surrounding BTC imply that financial markets believe three things: BTC will grow at least tenfold from today (surpassing $10 trillion in market cap), reach a scale comparable to the US dollar, and become a reserve asset.
But when might these expectations be realized? To estimate this, the analyst referred to the "adoption" curve of crypto assets. Below is the chart shared by Woo, comparing BTC's adoption rate with that of the internet.
The values on the adoption curve here correlate with the current global population percentage using the asset. Woo compiled all known studies on BTC and crypto asset adoption to determine this curve.
Notable examples include Glassnode clustering addresses into "entities" (each representing an investor controlling a certain number of addresses) and Cambridge-verified exchange user data.
From the chart, BTC’s user base is equivalent to approximately 4.7% of the current world population.
If following the internet's S-curve pattern, BTC may still be in its early stages. If so, the asset’s user count would begin accelerating from this point onward.
Now, how much adoption do crypto assets need to rival the US dollar? Woo believes this would occur when the curve enters the 25% to 40% range, which could happen by 2030.
How BTC’s adoption curve will unfold in the coming years—and whether it will mirror what was seen with the internet—remains to be seen.
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