$BLAST airdrop is coming—how much are your points and tokens worth?
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$BLAST airdrop is coming—how much are your points and tokens worth?
If Blast has the same FDV as Arbitrum, the token price would be $0.083.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: olimpio
Translation: TechFlow
$BLAST tokenomics have been released, with an expected supply of 100 million Gold and 10 trillion Points. How much could they be worth?
This is a thread about Blast's FDV scenario, Gold valuation, and airdrop estimates—but why aren't we talking about Sybils?
To recap, today Blast announced a total supply of 100 billion. Of that, 17% is allocated to S1 airdrops: 7% for Gold, 7% for Points, and 3% for Blur farmers.
Therefore, all Gold holders will receive 7 billion BLAST tokens, and all Points holders will receive 7 billion BLAST tokens.
We don’t have official numbers for the total supply of Points or Gold, but some estimate the Gold supply to be around 80 million to 100 million (accounting for referrers).
In a pessimistic case, let’s assume the Gold supply is 100 million.
Gold
With a total supply of 100 million Gold, each Gold is equivalent to 70 $BLAST.
(7,000,000,000 airdrop / 100,000,000 total Gold supply) = 70 $BLAST per Gold.
Now, what about Points?
Points
Blast’s own website shows the relationship between Gold and Points:
“20,483 Gold receives the same airdrop as 2,224,255,462 Points”
This means 1 Gold = 108,590 Points
If we take the 100 million Gold total, we can estimate the total Points supply → 10,859,000,000,000 (10.8 trillion Points)
Keep in mind, Points receive 7 billion tokens, so approximately 0.00064463 $BLAST = 1 Point
100,000 Points = 64.46 $BLAST
$BLAST
Now we’ve (pessimistically) estimated:
So how much is Blast worth?
$BLAST Price Scenario
Comparing FDV scenarios against top Ethereum L2s, we see that if Blast outperforms all major Ethereum L2s at a $10 billion FDV, the token price would be $0.10.
Arbitrum is the largest L2, with the most TVL and highest FDV. If Blast had the same FDV, the token price would be $0.083.
Optimism follows closely—not because of its TVL ($678 million), but due to its $7.6 billion FDV. If Blast matched Optimism’s FDV, the token price would be $0.076.
Blast Gold Airdrop Price Scenario 1
Euphoric price → 100 Gold = $700
Neutral price → 100 Gold = $350
Pessimistic price → 100 Gold = $140
Blast Gold Airdrop Price Scenario 2
Euphoric price → 10 million Points = $650
Neutral price → 100 Gold = $325
Pessimistic price → 100 Gold = $130
Remember, this is just for fun—we’re building price scenarios on top of assumptions.
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We’re uncertain about the total Gold supply (the foundation of this analysis);
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We don’t know how the market will price Blast relative to competitors;
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We don’t know if the Gold–Points ratio is up-to-date or whether the total Points supply is accurate;
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We don’t know if the $BLAST distribution per Point/Gold will be linear (though I assume/expect it will be).
My Take on the Airdrop
Overall (barring unfortunate market conditions), I think this airdrop was executed very well. No Sybil concerns. Smaller wallets and users were accommodated through Gold.
We don’t talk about Sybils because farmers had to put in real work (Gold) or real capital (Points). If tomorrow’s launch goes smoothly, I believe this will be a success.
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