Who Will Buy the Altcoins When KOLs, Institutions, and Retail Investors All Have Their Own Agendas?
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Who Will Buy the Altcoins When KOLs, Institutions, and Retail Investors All Have Their Own Agendas?
If you haven't figured out who's going to take over from you, then you might be the one taking over.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: wassielawyer
Translation: Peng Sun, Foresight News
Altcoins and VC projects are really pissing me off. Over the past several years, I’ve participated as a founder, advisor, and investor in dozens of deals—I’ve seen what actually happens behind the scenes. Today, I want to share my perspective.
The current problem is simple: institutions only chase blue-chip coins, retail investors are rushing into meme coins, and the so-called “smart money” that used to take VC bags has now joined private rounds. So who the hell is going to take over these billion-dollar+ valuations?
The first point is easy to understand. Bitcoin ETFs (and perhaps Ethereum ETFs) are attracting new investors. As time goes on, larger and more conservative funds will internally approve ETF purchases, accelerating capital inflows. Unlike us retail traders who rotate positions every five minutes, big institutions move much slower. And I believe when they do buy into ETFs again, they’ll likely allocate even more heavily toward BTC.
But this capital flowing into BTC (and maybe ETH) won’t go into ZK, DA, AI, gaming, intent-centric, or L1/L2/L3/L4 tokens. Under normal logic, you’d join a seed round at a $10 million valuation because you expect it to 10x at TGE—valued at no less than $100 million post-launch. Or you invest in a DApp at a $10–20 million valuation knowing its future value should reach $80–100 million.
At this point, you might be thinking, “Wait a second… that’s me!” If so, you’re probably one of the surviving “lambs” from 2022. In the last cycle, you participated in VC rounds, worked hard during the bear market, built networks, shared alphas. This cycle, you became “smart money,” waiting for the next wave of lambs to take your 10x bags.
But where are those bag-takers now? The game has changed. Everyone else is buying BTC—but you’re not, because it only offers 3x upside. You’re holding altcoins with 30x potential. Meanwhile, clueless retail without resources or alpha are all chasing meme coins.
Which leads to the second point: if you didn’t participate in private or seed rounds, are you really going to take VC bags? Probably not. You might be a dumb lamb, but you're not *that* stupid. Let's be honest—everyone trading crypto wants someone else to buy high, whether it's cat coins, dog coins, or frog coins. Who actually reads whitepapers to verify if something is truly more decentralized? Who cares whether its TPS is really higher than Solana’s? No one gives a damn about censorship resistance, efficiency, or scalability.
Some might say, “Hey wassielawyer, you’re being too extreme. There must still be people investing in technically strong projects!” Sure, there are—but here’s the catch: they’ve already invested in seed rounds. Back to the same question: who takes the VC bags? Is it going to be new retail without connections, who don’t buy blue-chips or memes? Honestly, I think those people might be clinically insane. And unless all your friends are as lucky as comic book heroes, everyone else is broke—with no money to spend.
Back in 2020, people were collecting U.S. government stimulus checks with nothing better to do than gamble. But now? Inflation remains high, rents and mortgages keep rising, wages haven’t kept up—ordinary people simply don’t have the time or spare cash to chase hyped-up new altcoins.
Do you still believe that after BTC or meme coins pump, alts will rotate upward? Maybe a few will, but most altcoins are finished. In this industry, BTC holders are the least risk-tolerant, while those who got rich from meme coins will just cash out and buy Lamborghinis.
From Q3 this year through the end of next year, hundreds or even thousands of projects will launch via TGE. But we won’t see the massive inflows we had last cycle. The limited capital coming in won’t be enough to absorb all these launches. Market makers for decent projects might pump before token unlocks and dumps; trashier ones will probably go straight to zero.
Because if you haven’t figured out who’s going to take your bags—you might be the one taking them. The early seed and Series A investors will pass their bags to you, and you just don’t know it yet.
That said, I still believe some altcoins will outperform others. Projects with large supply, broad holder distribution, low lockups, real technical merit or use cases, and strong marketing will continue to attract smart money. But not every coin will follow that path.
Still, talking about this feels hypocritical—I’ve already angel-invested in several L1s, L2s, and DApps I genuinely believe in, and I’m sitting on a pile of altcoins. That’s what pisses me off. I hope I’m wrong, and someone comes to take my bags.
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