Short sellers caught off guard as Bitcoin surges past $47,000 to 20-month high
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Short sellers caught off guard as Bitcoin surges past $47,000 to 20-month high
Is Bitcoin's next short-term target $50,000?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Mary Liu, TechFlow
Fueled by anticipation of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, Bitcoin surged past $47,000 during Monday's U.S. trading session, reaching its highest level in nearly 20 months. The last time BTC traded above $46,000 was in April 2022.
According to Bitpush terminal data, Bitcoin surpassed $47,000 around 2:15 p.m. Eastern Time on January 8. Its 24-hour gain stood at 6.85%.
Crypto-related stocks also rose. Coinbase gained nearly 2%, Iris Energy and Marathon Digital climbed over 7%, Riot Platforms advanced 6%, and CleanSpark increased by 5%.
Coinglass data shows that liquidations of Bitcoin short positions exceeded $89 million over the past 24 hours, a figure still rising as of publication. Total crypto short liquidations across all markets surpassed $150 million.
With markets eagerly awaiting the SEC’s decisions on multiple ETF applications, expectations are high for profound impacts on institutional participation and overall market dynamics.
Amid this rally, BlackRock, Grayscale, and other potential Bitcoin ETF issuers have submitted final updates to the SEC, including key fee disclosures—bolstering investor confidence in approval prospects. This Wednesday marks the SEC’s deadline to approve or reject the ETFs, and industry experts widely expect the agency to approve several applications simultaneously to level the playing field.
Jim Angel, associate professor at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business, told CNBC: "It's a price war. Multiple applicants are launching nearly identical commoditized products, and their only means of competition is price."
Former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton said Monday on CNBC’s "Squawk Box": "Approval is inevitable. There's nothing left to decide... This is not just a big step forward for Bitcoin, but for the entire financial industry."
Optimism surrounding Bitcoin pushed Ethereum up 3%. Several companies vying for Bitcoin ETFs have also filed applications for spot Ethereum ETFs, with decision deadlines expected later this year.
Is Bitcoin's next short-term target $50,000?
Crypto analyst ArslanAli noted on X that key technical indicators show Bitcoin’s medium-term support at $45,900. Immediate resistance lies at $48,420, followed by $50,000 and $51,375—marking potential hurdles for further price gains.
On the downside, if consolidation occurs, support levels are seen at $44,520, then $42,925 and $41,500—levels that could provide floor during pullbacks.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 76, indicating an overbought condition. Such elevated RSI levels often signal that a price correction may be imminent.
Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, stated in a report that ETF approval by the SEC could push Bitcoin higher. "Approval could spark a 10-15% rise, driven by sidelined capital," Kruger said. "If approval doesn't happen, a pullback is likely, though strong support is expected above $30,000."
A report released today by Standard Chartered suggests that spot Bitcoin ETFs could bring as much as $100 billion in new inflows throughout 2024, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price to $200,000 by year-end.
Matrixport, however, believes Bitcoin may fall again into consolidation, as signs emerge of selling pressure from “smart money” and weakening funding rates. Recent market adjustments may not have fully eliminated downside risks, and BTC could retest the $36,000 to $38,000 range.
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, believes spot Bitcoin ETF approval could send Bitcoin soaring to $70,000. However, he cautions of a significant subsequent correction. From early March prices, a "healthy" 20% to 30% retracement would be reasonable, and if Bitcoin hits the $60,000 to $70,000 range in the coming weeks, a pullback of up to 40% is possible. He further predicts Bitcoin will initially decline alongside broader financial markets but rebound ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting due to its status as a "neutral reserve hard currency."
Despite varying price forecasts, analysts agree that demand for Bitcoin ETFs—both from institutions and retail investors—is strong, boding well for adoption. ETF expert Nate Geraci expects spot Bitcoin ETFs to surpass all previous ETF launch records. Galaxy Digital estimates the potential market size for U.S. Bitcoin ETFs at approximately $14 trillion in the first year, expanding to $26 trillion in the second year, and reaching $39 trillion by the third year.
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