Funds have spread to MEME tokens across various public chains' ecosystems, and the development trajectory of "value coins" may already be clear
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Funds have spread to MEME tokens across various public chains' ecosystems, and the development trajectory of "value coins" may already be clear
Capital moves in cycles: it starts with memes, then flows into value coins, and when the value coin bubble grows large enough, capital will return to memes once again.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Shu Tong
In the next quarter of the BTC ecosystem, dozens of billion-dollar projects will emerge, and the trajectory of value tokens has become clear.
1. Currently, sats ranks No.1 and ordi No.2 in market cap within the BTC ecosystem, together holding nearly $250 million in market value. This should not and will not be the ceiling for protocols/projects in this space. While anchoring effects require minimal effort, they are not fundamental. In the future, numerous protocols will surpass the $1 billion mark;
Capital is now spreading to the far ends of various public chains—specifically, tail meme assets such as Avalanche’s AVAV—and aggressively expanding into "value tokens."
2. The overall development path of value tokens has become clear. Judging whether a project is top-tier relies more on "soft metrics" such as team background and founder vision. Seeking data during the "narrative phase" of value tokens is futile;
A visionary project team would unlikely settle for a narrow niche. Ethereum has already explored the greatest common denominators in crypto, and these directions can be organically combined;
For example, they all aim to be "large and comprehensive": Benny's TTP (Trac Core + Tap + Pipe) protocol ≥ asset issuance + decentralized indexing + oracle + DeFi; BRC-420 protocol (exemplified by Blue Box) ≥ asset issuance + L2 + metaverse; Domo Foundation-backed BRC-100 protocol ≥ asset issuance + DeFi + EVM-compatible L2, etc.;
The widespread breakout of "small but refined" projects may only happen after foundational protocols have proven their security and accumulated user bases. For now, capital favors "large and comprehensive" projects.
3. Total value locked (TVL) in DeFi within the ecosystem will continue to rise. The most certain strategy is identifying underlying assets—though there are countless protocols, highly liquid and widely recognized assets remain scarce;
Top-tier native tokens like ordi, pipe, atom, or even meme tokens such as sats listed on major exchanges, can be seen as equivalents of ETH in the Ethereum ecosystem. However, Bitcoin’s “ETH equivalents” will be more fragmented;
Referring back to point 2, ambitious DeFi teams won’t focus solely on expanding one single protocol. For instance, Unisat already supports multiple protocols, and its L2 will also support various ecosystems going forward. Underlying assets serve as the core use case for DeFi, and their value will naturally rise with the tide.
4. If you look purely at absolute multiples within the Bitcoin ecosystem, the numbers might scare many people off. Most are accustomed to high-valuation assets, yet profits primarily come from the relative gap among three factors: ceiling (maximum value), current fundamentals (floor value), and price;
Moreover, absolute vs. relative values apply differently depending on market saturation: red oceans favor absolute values, blue oceans favor relative ones. The Bitcoin ecosystem is currently still in a blue ocean phase, with at least 1–2 quarters of runway ahead, and market cap poised for another order-of-magnitude growth.
5. Capital moves in cycles—starting from memes, flowing into value tokens today, and when value token bubbles grow large enough, some concepts will face skepticism, falsification, and challenges, prompting capital to rotate back into memes;
After the exchange-listing hype cools down, ordi will no longer hold a significant liquidity advantage. Meme tokens may then need to focus more on inheriting properties of strong underlying assets combined with multidimensional narrative structures, such as sats.
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