TechFlow, on May 14, HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed in the latest edition of the HTX DeepThink column that the April U.S. CPI data released on May 13 came in below expectations, reinforcing market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, driven by factors such as slower Fed QT pace, fiscal fund repatriation during tax season, and money market fund outflows from the RRP, macro liquidity has seen a temporary release. This has led to clear capital inflows into the crypto market, fueling a strong rebound in major crypto assets such as BTC, ETH, and SOL in May. Institutional capital continues to flow in, with BTC futures open interest (OI) remaining high at 3.4% of spot circulating supply, while derivative markets for ETH and SOL are also showing strong recovery.
However, in the short term, BTC and ETH have a high proportion of profit among short-term holders, combined with concentrated leveraged positions in derivatives. If prices break through or fall below key technical levels, it could trigger chain reactions of mass profit-taking and liquidations, increasing the risk of market volatility.
