HTX DeepThink: Opportunities may concentrate in assets backed by profits and funding support, with BTC retaining recovery room after consolidation.
TechFlow reports that on September 24, Chloe, an author for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, noted that US stocks may remain volatile at elevated levels over the next month, while BTC and ETH still have room for recovery following consolidation. Opportunities are likely to focus on assets where profitability and capital inflows can be validated. This outlook rests on the assumptions that inflation does not worsen materially further, corporate earnings expectations remain resilient, and demand for crypto ETFs continues.
At the macro level, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16 to 3.75%-4%. The US August CPI increased 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, with core CPI rising 0.3% MoM. Rate pressure remains, and pass-through from oil prices to inflation continues to be a primary risk. Should inflation cool while employment holds steady, risk appetite is expected to recover; however, a sudden labor market deterioration could allow earnings downward revisions to offset the tailwinds from falling rates.
US equities remain backed by earnings fundamentals. FactSet anticipates S&P 500 third-quarter earnings to rise 28.9% year-over-year, surpassing the 26.7% figure projected at the end of June. The forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 19.1x, close to its ten-year average. While valuations near historical averages offer a cushion during corrections, this does not indicate the market is inexpensive amid high interest rates, especially since these earnings projections remain analyst forecasts awaiting confirmation from actual results. In the coming month, equity gains will depend more on earnings delivery, and index breakouts will require stabilization in bond yields. Regarding AI infrastructure, companies that can successfully convert orders into profits and cash flow hold a distinct edge, whereas those banking solely on capital expenditure narratives may see further divergence.
On the crypto front, US spot BTC ETFs recorded combined net inflows of approximately $1.714 billion on September 21–22, while ETH ETFs saw net inflows of around $432 million. Demand has now extended to Ethereum, though two days of data remain insufficient to establish a clear trend. BTC surpassed $87,000 on September 23 before falling back below $84,000, suggesting that strong buying pressure can still be disrupted by macroeconomic shocks. The base case posits that markets will first consolidate recent gains, with capital flows ultimately determining the breakout direction: should five-day cumulative ETF net inflows stay positive, BTC reclaim and hold above $87,000, and US Treasury yields ease, the market could test $90,000; conversely, if five-day flows turn negative and lower price lows emerge, the recovery outlook will be invalid. While ETH already enjoys funding tailwinds, a broad altcoin bull run will still require confirmation from wider spot demand.
Upcoming key data releases include the September 30 PCE print, October 2 nonfarm payrolls, and October 14 CPI report. Although the October 27–28 FOMC meeting lies outside the current forecast horizon, policy expectations will continue to be reflected in asset prices ahead of the event. A single session's advance cannot confirm a new trend, just as a one-day pullback cannot overturn the base case; views must evolve continuously in response to inflation data, earnings guidance, and capital flow dynamics.
Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it serve as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.
