Macquarie: Federal Reserve statement wording may shift towards a hawkish direction, most likely timing for rate hike is December.
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Macquarie: Federal Reserve statement wording may shift towards a hawkish direction, most likely timing for rate hike is December.
Macquarie Group Head of Economic Research David Doyle stated that the Federal Reserve will not adjust interest rates at this meeting, but this is the first time this year that the decision seems less clear, with the probability of a rate hike implied by market pricing at around 35%. Waller's wording and the voting situation of committee members will be key. Besides the interest rate decision itself, the market may also focus on whether any voting members dissent, whether there are changes in the statement wording, and how Chair Waller communicates during the press conference. If interest rates remain unchanged, dissenting votes are likely to occur, and the number of dissenting votes will depend on the magnitude of the adjustment in the statement wording in a hawkish direction. It is still expected that the next policy action is likely to be a rate hike, with the most likely timing being December. The description of the unemployment rate in this statement may become more optimistic. The wording in June was "little change," but data released since then shows that the unemployment rate has experienced another small decline. In addition, the risk of further adjustment in the statement wording leans in a hawkish direction, and a sentence implying a tendency for future policy tightening may be added. (Jin10)
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsTechFlow news, July 29, Macquarie Group Head of Economic Research David Doyle stated that the Federal Reserve will not adjust interest rates at this meeting, but this is the first time this year the decision appears less clear, with the probability of a rate hike implied by market pricing at approximately 35%. Wash's wording and the voting situation of committee members will be key. Besides the interest rate decision itself, the market may also focus on whether any voting members dissent, whether there are changes in the statement wording, and Chairman Wash's communication style at the press conference.
If interest rates remain unchanged, dissenting votes are likely to occur, and the number of dissenting votes will depend on the extent of the adjustment in the statement wording in a hawkish direction. It is still expected that the next policy action is likely to be a rate hike, with the most likely timing being December. The description of the unemployment rate in this statement may become more optimistic. The wording in June was "little changed," but data released since then shows the unemployment rate has seen another slight decline. Additionally, the risk of further adjustment in the statement wording leans in a hawkish direction, and a sentence implying a tendency for future policy tightening may be added. (Jin10)
