TechFlow reports, on July 22, CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom noted in a post that Bitcoin rose from approximately $64,000 to $66,000 within two days, but this rally was primarily driven by leveraged trading rather than genuine capital inflow. On-chain data shows that funding rates briefly turned negative on July 18-19, triggering a short squeeze that ignited the rebound; subsequently, open interest climbed from approximately $21.2 billion to a new high of $23 billion, indicating that new leveraged positions continue to drive the market.
Meanwhile, spot trading volume has remained in a "cooling" state since April, with off-exchange stablecoin funds staying on the sidelines rather than withdrawing. In terms of ETFs, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for two consecutive weeks, with single-day inflows of approximately $271 million on July 20 (of which IBIT contributed $116.5 million), indicating a slow return of institutional capital, but not yet enough to drive a recovery in overall spot trading volume. The analyst warned that the current rally structure is fragile; once momentum fades, rapid liquidation of leveraged positions could trigger a sharp correction, suggesting waiting for a substantial recovery in spot trading volume before chasing the rally.
