TechFlow News, July 04, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that active Bitcoin investors are currently overall in a state of approximately 20% unrealized loss, and market sentiment is in a "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the depth of pressure seen in historical bear markets. Darkfost pointed out that the current AVIV ratio indicator is approximately 0.8; in comparison, during historical bear market phases this indicator usually drops to 0.5–0.6, potentially corresponding to a deeper drawdown of approximately 40%–50%.
Analysis suggests that the entry of institutional capital and ETFs in this cycle has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical characteristics, and the market is still operating along its own structure. Although significant devaluation pressure has currently appeared, a rebound may be triggered without necessarily falling to historical bear market extreme levels; overall, caution still needs to be maintained regarding cyclical fluctuations.
