TechFlow News, June 14: Serenity—dubbed “the white-haired stock guru” by the market—offered a relatively sharp assessment of technical analysis when asked whether he uses it.
Serenity stated that, in his view, technical analysis is more akin to “astrology for traders,” serving primarily to help understand market participants’ psychology and expectations—and to identify opportune entry points—not to predict a company’s true future value growth.
He believes technical analysis reflects what retail investors and short-term traders currently believe or focus on, but cannot reliably determine a stock’s ultimate price ceiling.
Citing concrete examples, Serenity noted that SPCE’s past sharp rally did not stem from any particular candlestick pattern, but rather from the market’s reassessment of future revenue potential across related industry-chain companies; similarly, AXTI’s substantial price increase was driven more by fundamental factors—including indium phosphide substrate demand, export controls, and growing photonics-related demand.
In his view, a more effective research framework should center on industry-theme correlations, news-driven catalysts, forward-looking revenue forecasts, macroeconomic conditions, corporate earnings reports, float structure, and market博弈 dynamics—all used collectively to derive a reasonable valuation.
Serenity holds that technical analysis can serve as a supplementary tool—for timing entries and managing risk—but should not form the core basis for assessing a stock’s long-term value.
He further cited IREN as an example: although some chart-based analyses projected high target prices, the company still needed to absorb the potential impact of large-scale at-the-market (ATM) share issuances—a fundamental factor often far more decisive than chart patterns.
Serenity emphasized that, in currently hot sectors such as AI and semiconductors, industry trends, fundamental shifts, and key catalysts remain the primary drivers of stock price direction; relying solely on technical analysis carries significant judgment risk.
