TechFlow news: On June 13, Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Research, analyzed that the top signals for this Bitcoin cycle are exceptionally mild—only two out of eleven traditional top indicators have been triggered. Notably, the Pi Cycle Top indicator has failed to trigger for the first time, and the MVRV peak stands at just 2.29, significantly lower than the prior cycle’s range of 2.93–5.91. Due to this relatively calm top, the network’s cost basis now sits at 43.7% of its historical high—higher than the 34%, 21%, and 17% observed in previous cycles—implying a correspondingly elevated bottom price range.
Under Galaxy’s base-case scenario, the bottom is projected to fall between $40,000 and $46,000; under a deep capitulation scenario, it could reach $30,000–$37,000; while in a shallow correction scenario, price may stabilize near $51,000–$54,000. Thorn also cautioned that the cost basis is reflexive—if genuine panic-driven selling emerges, the bottom could shift further downward to around $28,000.
On-chain data shows that, per CryptoQuant monitoring, Bitcoin currently trades within its historical bear-market valuation low range. The spot price stands at approximately $59,000—about 9% above the realized price of $53,600. Speculative futures and spot demand combined declined by 652,000 BTC over the past week—the largest single-week contraction since January 2022—and the one-year demand metric has turned negative, indicating current buyer strength is weaker than it was a year ago.
