TechFlow News: On May 24, CITIC Securities stated that the U.S. and Iran are drawing increasingly closer to reaching an agreement, and the market has largely priced this scenario in as the baseline case. Upon agreement, the most significant change will be simultaneous restocking on both supply and demand sides, alongside a rapid pickup in economic activity. Currently, several economic indicators are notably weak—reflecting delayed demand ahead of the anticipated U.S.-Iran deal and the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Microeconomic entities are waiting rather than rushing to replenish inventories or ramp up production—a non-normal disruption. Once the agreement is finalized and navigation through the Strait resumes, supply and demand will realign. Economic activity is expected to improve markedly from June onward. Meanwhile, shifts in macro variables will also alter the environmental assumptions underlying market strategies, gradually leading to a more balanced style. Large-scale institutional selling is nearing its end; once macro conditions stabilize, allocation-oriented capital will gradually return, supporting the recovery of low-valuation sectors. Strategically, continue proactively reducing volatility and reconstruct the “AI + energy & chemicals” barbell portfolio structure.
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