TechFlow News, May 9: According to a report by The Block, Julio Moreno, Research Head at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, released a report on May 8 stating that Bitcoin has surged over 20% since early April—reaching a three-month high. However, the firm characterizes this rally as a “bear market bounce” and warns that profit-taking pressure may intensify further.
On the data front, Bitcoin holders’ daily realized profit on May 4 reached 14,600 BTC—the highest level since December 10, 2025. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has remained consistently above 1.00 since mid-April, indicating the market has entered a sustained profit-taking phase. On a 30-day rolling basis, holders’ net realized profit turned positive at +20,000 BTC—the first time since December 22, 2025, shifting from negative to positive. Previously, net losses between February and March had deepened to as much as -398,000 BTC.
Nonetheless, Moreno points out that the current net realized profit of +20,000 BTC remains far below the historical threshold of 130,000–200,000 BTC required to confirm a transition into a bull market—further reinforcing the assessment of a “bear market bounce” rather than a structural trend reversal. Additionally, the current unrealized profit ratio stands at approximately 18%; historical experience shows that when this metric rises to elevated levels, holders tend to sell to lock in gains, increasing correction risk.
