TechFlow News, April 30: Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the U.S. Federal Reserve is currently entering a confluence phase characterized by “uncertainty in policy trajectory + restructuring of power dynamics.” Its impact on the crypto market has thus shifted from a singular focus on interest-rate expectations to a more complex framework involving liquidity and risk pricing.
On one hand, the current leadership—represented by Jerome Powell—has clearly signaled no near-term rate cuts. Against the backdrop of rising energy prices, persistent core inflation hovering around 3%, and tariff-driven price transmission, real interest rates may remain elevated—or even tighten further—directly constraining beta expansion in the crypto market, particularly impacting leverage- and liquidity-dependent sectors such as perpetual futures (Perp) and decentralized finance (DeFi).
On the other hand, Kevin Warsh—who is set to assume leadership—is advocating for a decision-making mechanism marked by “greater division and more open debate.” This implies future policy signals will no longer be singular and stable but instead reflect a state of multi-source contestation. Such signal fragmentation will significantly increase market volatility, render the interest-rate expectation curve harder to price, and thereby raise the discount rate for risk assets.
For the crypto market, macro-level liquidity is unlikely to provide clear directional guidance in the near term. Sustained trends will depend more on structural narratives—such as real-world assets (RWA), on-chain yields, and trading infrastructure—rather than being driven solely by expectations of monetary easing. Meanwhile, if hawkish consensus within the Fed strengthens or political interference intensifies—thereby challenging the Fed’s independence—it could trigger a repricing of both the U.S. dollar’s credibility and the long-term interest-rate regime. Paradoxically, this would bolster medium- to long-term narratives supporting non-sovereign assets like BTC. From a market observation perspective, under current conditions, placing unilateral bets on macro-level easing offers limited probability of success; structural opportunities therefore warrant greater attention.
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice nor any offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.
