TechFlow News, April 8: According to a report by QCP Capital, the U.S. and Iran reached a two-week conditional ceasefire regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Bitcoin (BTC) to rebound above $71,000, equity markets to rise, and Brent crude oil to briefly retreat to lows near $90.
Hours before the ceasefire took effect, Iran launched missile strikes against Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex; risks of disruption to energy infrastructure therefore remain unresolved. On the macro front, U.S. nonfarm payrolls for March increased by 178,000, yet the labor market remains broadly weak. Coupled with persistent energy-driven inflationary pressures, this week’s CPI data will serve as a critical reference for the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.
In the options market, BTC’s front-end implied volatility has narrowed, yet put options continue to attract strong demand. Whether BTC can decisively break above the $74,000 level represents a key near-term technical threshold. Markets are currently pricing in a *dovish shift*—not certainty—making the Fed’s meeting minutes, CPI data, and progress in Friday’s diplomatic negotiations pivotal catalysts for testing the sustainability of the rally.
