TechFlow News, April 6: According to JINSHI Data, Li Zixin, Assistant Researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, stated that while a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran remains possible under current circumstances, it faces significant challenges. Even if achieved, such a ceasefire would likely be a stopgap measure rather than a reliable pathway toward a permanent cessation of hostilities. First, the core demands of both sides are fundamentally irreconcilable. Iran regards control over the Strait of Hormuz and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU) at 60% enrichment as critical strategic bargaining chips in negotiations—and has explicitly stated it will not relinquish these vital interests merely for a short-term ceasefire. In contrast, the U.S. demands that Iran reopen the Strait and address its nuclear materials, effectively requiring Iran to make unilateral concessions. Moreover, the U.S. seeks to suspend Iran’s core interests through short-term actions—a demand that crosses Iran’s sovereignty and national security red lines. Second, the trust foundation for negotiations remains extremely weak. Although Iran acknowledges exchanging information with the U.S. via friendly countries, it denies engaging in direct talks. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump simultaneously signals openness to negotiations while continuing to issue military “ultimatums”—a “fight-while-talking” approach that more closely resembles maximum pressure and probing the adversary’s willingness to compromise, rather than a genuine pursuit of reconciliation.
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