TechFlow News, March 26: According to JIN10 Data, the prolonged Israel-Iran conflict has introduced additional downside risks to the U.S. economy, prompting multiple institutions to recently raise their forecasts for the probability of a U.S. recession. According to U.S. sources on March 25, Moody’s Analytics’ model shows the probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%; Goldman Sachs increased its forecasted probability to 30%; Wilmington Trust and EY-Parthenon estimate the probability at 45% and 40%, respectively. Under normal circumstances, this probability would typically stand around 20%. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, stated that the recession risk is “alarmingly high—and still rising,” making a recession a genuine threat. If current high oil prices persist through late May into the end of Q2, “the U.S. economy will enter a recession.”
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