TechFlow News: On March 26, according to JIN10 Data, Japan’s two-year JGB yield rose to its highest level since 1996 amid market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates soon. The two-year JGB yield—which is particularly sensitive to monetary policy expectations—rose one basis point on Thursday to 1.315%, surpassing the previous high of 1.31% reached last month. The 10-year JGB yield rose two basis points to 2.270%. Markets anticipate that an outbreak of conflict in Iran could trigger a surge in oil prices, leading to an inflationary shock. Central banks worldwide have issued warnings about persistent price pressures, pushing up short-term yields, while traders have largely priced out expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing this year. Rising oil prices are also weighing on the yen, further reinforcing market expectations that the BOJ may need to continue tightening monetary policy. Overnight index swap (OIS) data indicate a 64% probability that the BOJ will act in April.
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