TechFlow reports that on March 22, Garrett Jin, agent of the “1011 Insider Whale,” posted on X stating that Trump has issued Iran a 48-hour ultimatum demanding full restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz—significantly escalating tensions. He summarized this move as having three key implications: First, diplomatic buffers have been broken—the previously low-key negotiation path between Iran and Japan regarding vessel-by-vessel passage may now be terminated. Second, the nature of the conflict is intensifying; if strikes expand to civilian infrastructure such as power grids, Iran’s stance will harden and the probability of prolonged warfare will rise. Third, oil-market volatility has surged and market dislocation has worsened: the原油 Volatility Index (OVX) has climbed to 93, while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) stands at approximately 24—making the OVX/VIX ratio nearly fourfold, indicating oil-market risk far exceeds equity-market pricing. Overall, oil prices and market volatility are likely to continue rising, and the expected duration of the conflict is lengthening.
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