TechFlow News, March 8: Garrett Jin, agent of the “1011 Crash Insider Whale,” posted on X stating that historically, there is a clear correlation between oil supply shortfalls and oil price increases: a ~7% supply shortfall in 1973 drove oil prices up by ~300%; a ~5% shortfall in 1979 drove prices up by ~150%; and a ~6% shortfall in 1990 drove prices up by ~130%.
Currently, the potential supply shock around the Strait of Hormuz is estimated at ~15%, significantly exceeding historical precedents. Most institutional models assume this shock will last only “a few days to a few weeks,” but virtually no model anticipates it could persist for months. In reality, once market consensus on the duration is disrupted, additional long-position capital may be forced into the market, further driving up oil prices.
