TechFlow News, March 3 — According to JIN10 Data, the U.S. dollar posted its largest two-day gain in nearly a year, driven by inflation concerns and safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Iran conflict. As traders scaled back expectations for rate cuts, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose by 7 basis points, hitting a three-week high. The widening Middle East conflict pushed up energy prices, bolstering the greenback amid a spiraling inflation outlook. Crude oil prices surged above $85 per barrel for the first time since July 2024, while European natural gas prices jumped over 40%, reaching their highest level since 2023. Against this backdrop, traders are scaling back expectations for dovish Federal Reserve policy by year-end. Money markets now price in a total of 37 basis points of Fed rate cuts for 2024—far below last Friday’s 60-basis-point expectation. As a barometer of market positioning, the risk-reversal indicator shows bullish sentiment toward the dollar has reached its highest level since June last year. According to anonymous, knowledgeable traders, physical accounts drove a large share of spot flows, reducing recent long positions in the euro and the British pound.
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