TechFlow News, March 1: According to JINSHI Data, the situation has grown increasingly chaotic following Iran’s missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Gulf cities, airlines’ suspension of flights, and oil tankers carrying petroleum and other goods halting passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Rong Ren Goh, Portfolio Manager of the Fixed Income Team at Eastspring Investments, stated that tail risks in the Middle East have increased. Markets will reprice—shifting from geopolitical shock to regime-risk shock and prolonged conflict, rather than merely retaliatory action—unless Iran signals its willingness to negotiate. Analysts highlight a greater concern: market complacency. Investors have consistently assumed the conflict’s impact will be limited and have dismissed comparisons between this episode and Iran’s 1979 regime change. Barclays analysts note that history strongly supports “selling the fact” rather than “buying the rumor” during conflicts. Yet worryingly, investors have now internalized the “sell the fact” mindset and may underestimate the risk of the situation spiraling out of control. It is advised not to rush into buying any dip. A potential buying opportunity may arise only if equity markets correct significantly—for instance, if the S&P 500 falls more than 10%. But that time has not yet come.
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