TechFlow News, March 1: According to CoinDesk, following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket swiftly launched over a dozen event contracts related to the Iran situation—including ceasefire timing, succession of Iran’s Supreme Leader, and whether U.S. troops will enter Iran. Since the airstrikes, these markets have collectively attracted approximately $600 million in trading volume. The contract titled “Will Ayatollah Khamenei lose his position as Iran’s Supreme Leader before March 31?” settled at 100% after Iran’s state television confirmed his death, with a trading volume of $45 million. The top winner, account “Curseaaaaaaa,” earned approximately $757,000 on its “Yes” position. Four other traders also earned six-figure profits. Additionally, the largest single-event contract—“When will the U.S. launch airstrikes against Iran?”—has accumulated $529 million in trading volume since its launch on December 22 last year, including $89.6 million traded on February 28 alone. Subsequent prediction market data shows traders broadly anticipate a阶段性 outcome within weeks: the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before March 2 stands at only 4%, rising to 15% before March 6, 61% before March 31, and 78% before April 30.
Risk Disclosure: This website's content is not investment advice and offers no trading guidance or related services. Per regulations from the PBOC and other authorities, users must be aware of virtual currency risks. Contact us / support@techflowpost.com ICP License: 琼ICP备2022009338号
