TechFlow News, February 20: According to JINSHI Data, on Friday, economists from the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania stated that if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that the broad emergency tariffs imposed by former President Trump are invalid, over $175 billion in U.S. tariff revenue may be at risk of being refunded. Leslie Bollinger, Senior Economist at PWBM, said this estimate was derived from a bottom-up forecasting model. The model analyzes Trump’s specific tariffs—including those levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—using tariff rates categorized by product and country. Trump has repeatedly touted the revenue generated by these tariffs; the Congressional Budget Office estimates they will yield approximately $300 billion annually over the next decade. However, the analysis suggests that should the courts rule against Trump, a substantial portion of these tariffs may need to be refunded. A $175 billion refund would exceed the combined fiscal year 2025 budgets of the Department of Transportation ($127.6 billion) and the Department of Justice ($44.9 billion).
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