TechFlow News: On January 26, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that this week’s macro narrative in the crypto market continues to revolve around three key themes: the Federal Reserve holding rates steady, persistent economic resilience, and a strengthening trend in precious metals. The FOMC meeting on Thursday is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged; market attention will focus on the tone of Chair Powell’s remarks—and whether he leaves room in the “dot plot” or policy statements for further rate cuts in 2026.
From a macro perspective, persistently declining inflation affords the Fed ample room for patience. December’s CPI and core CPI data both confirm the downward trend in inflation, with price pressures stemming from tariffs officially viewed as one-off disruptions. Meanwhile, the labor market exhibits a “neither expanding nor contracting” state, and with GDP growth momentum remaining solid, the urgency for a policy pivot has significantly diminished. This removes any immediate practical impetus for the Fed to signal more aggressive easing in the near term.
For crypto assets, this implies that liquidity expectations are unlikely to expand further—yet risk appetite remains largely intact. The U.S. dollar maintains a relatively weak stance amid tariff-related and geopolitical uncertainties, providing medium-term support to Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. However, absent an unexpectedly dovish signal from the FOMC, markets are more likely to remain in a high-range consolidation rather than quickly embarking on a decisive directional move. Notably, precious metals continue their strong performance. Gold and silver display a rare “self-reinforcing upward” pattern—prices rise regardless of whether risk assets gain or decline. This reflects structural supply-demand imbalances, increasing participation by trend-following capital, and a long-term repricing of fiat currency credibility. Historical experience shows that once precious metals enter this phase, Bitcoin often exhibits a lag effect—typically initiating its next phase of price evolution only after sentiment spills over from the precious metals market.
