TechFlow news, January 3rd: In the 2026 outlook, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets at VanEck, stated that digital assets present complex yet positive signals at the start of 2026. Bitcoin declined by approximately 80% in the last cycle, but its actual volatility has since nearly halved, suggesting that the magnitude of this cycle's decline may correspondingly shrink to around 40%. The market has already priced in a decline of about 35%.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle pattern—often peaking during the window after U.S. elections—remains valid following the high in early October 2025. This pattern indicates that 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation rather than a surge or crash.
In 2026, global liquidity is mixed: expectations of interest rate cuts provide support, but U.S. liquidity has tightened slightly due to the collision between AI-driven capital expenditure booms and fragile financing markets, leading to widening credit spreads. Leverage within the crypto ecosystem has been reset after multiple washouts. Although on-chain activity remains weak, signs of improvement are beginning to emerge.
Matthew Sigel noted that in this context, it is advisable to establish a disciplined Bitcoin allocation of 1% to 3% through a dollar-cost averaging strategy, increasing holdings during leverage liquidations and reducing them when market speculation overheats.
