$ZRO Launch Imminent: Price Predictions and Trading Strategies to Watch
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$ZRO Launch Imminent: Price Predictions and Trading Strategies to Watch
A valuation of 2-3 times the expected $30 billion or more for $ZRO is reasonable, implying $60 billion - $90 billion.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Axel Bitblaze
Compilation: TechFlow
Risk Warning: The following content is a compilation of market perspectives and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research for more detailed information.
Let’s talk about what you’re most concerned about right now. At what price will $ZRO launch, and how much is your $ZRO airdrop allocation worth?
Below are my thoughts on LayerZero's airdrop distribution, price prediction, and listing plans.
Airdrop Distribution
I agree with the widespread criticism that the airdrop execution was poorly done—many people who actively participated all year only received 200–300 tokens. I believe they should have added another 1–2% to the core distribution, which would have significantly improved things.
However, the core distribution could still increase. Since not all sybil accounts have been removed yet, those reclaimed allocations may be redistributed back to genuine users. Given the number of sybils caught, this could substantially boost the core allocation amounts.
Many people hold a grudge against me because I hold Kanpai Panda, but they fail to consider that I’ve also spent a full year building on LayerZero and creating guides on it just like them.
I received the same core allocation, while Kanpai is part of the advisory program.
Price Prediction
First, to predict the launch price of $ZRO, we need two key data points:
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Assumed FDV
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Total supply
Then, the launch price of $ZRO will be calculated as: FDV / total supply.
As noted by @PrimordialAA, the total supply is 1 billion. So how do we estimate the FDV?
My preferred method for estimating FDV at launch is to look at the FDVs of recently launched projects with similar funding and competitive positioning. For this, I’ll examine the launches of $STRK and $W.
After reading the above thread, you can see that predicting price involves considering the FDVs, funding, and valuations of recent launches. That’s why I’m looking at $STRK and $W—their public and private valuations help us project $ZRO's FDV.
Recent Project Comparison:
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Raised: $282 million
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Valuation: $8 billion
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Launch FDV: $28 billion
$W:
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Raised: $225 million
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Valuation: $2.5 billion
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Launch FDV: $17 billion
$ZRO:
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Raised: $263 million
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Valuation: $3 billion
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Launch FDV: ?
From the above, it's clear:
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$STRK launched with an FDV 3.5x higher than its valuation.
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$W launched with an FDV 6.8x higher than its valuation.
Given the poor market conditions, I think it's reasonable to expect $ZRO to launch at 2–3x its $3 billion valuation, meaning an FDV of $6–9 billion.
So what about the price? Price = FDV / total supply
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Total supply of $ZRO: 1 billion
Estimated $ZRO prices:
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$6 billion FDV = $6
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$7 billion FDV = $7
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$8 billion FDV = $8
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$9 billion FDV = $9
My “Game” Plan
I believe LayerZero is here to stay. Unlike L1s and L2s, which must actively attract users, LayerZero is more of an infrastructure project—nearly every existing and upcoming project integrates it as their cross-chain layer.
This means users interact with LayerZero even if they aren’t consciously using it, since it’s already embedded into many protocols. This is different from L1s and L2s, where you must convince people to actually use your chain.
FDV and Target Levels:
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At or below $5 billion FDV: I’ll buy more
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Around $8 billion FDV: I’ll consider selling a portion
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Fully exit between $15–20 billion FDV
Price Targets:
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$5 or lower: Buy
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Sell part of position at $8
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Fully exit between $15–20
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@Axel_bitblaze69
