Analyst: The likelihood of recent approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs is as high as 98%
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Analyst: The likelihood of recent approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs is as high as 98%
That said, market speculation has been ongoing.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsSource: zycrypto
Compiled by: Blockchain Knight
On Tuesday, prominent crypto asset analyst Mike Alfred posted a discussion on X (formerly Twitter), asserting a 98.7% probability that a spot BTC ETF will be approved by January 10, sparking excitement within the crypto community.
Alfred stated: "The likelihood of a spot BTC ETF being approved by January 10 is as high as 98.7%."
He added: "Many BTC miners' January call options have been trading as if there’s no expectation beyond normal volatility next month. How can Wall Street be so indifferent on this issue?"
The tweet gained widespread approval, including from XRP-supportive lawyer John E. Deaton, who enthusiastically responded in agreement with Alfred.
Notably, John E. Deaton is recognized for representing over 75,000 XRP investors in the SEC vs. Ripple case and had predicted in October that a spot BTC ETF would receive definitive approval either by the end of this year or at the latest by the end of Q1 2024.
As optimism grows in the crypto space, several major firms are actively discussing and revising proposals with U.S. regulators to gain approval for spot BTC ETFs.
On Monday, BlackRock, the world's largest asset management firm, submitted an updated proposal for its ETF, incorporating the cash creation and redemption mechanism favored by the SEC.
Initial filings from various applicants underwent rigorous scrutiny by the SEC, raising concerns about investor safety and market manipulation.
Notably, the SEC has recently been actively engaging with several ETF applicants, holding multiple meetings with companies such as Grayscale Investments, Fidelity Investments, and Franklin Templeton.
These discussions have centered on key issues, particularly the choice between physical and cash creation models.
Although the SEC generally favors the latter due to its perceived higher security, BlackRock and other issuers have advocated for the physical creation model.
This approach allows companies to redeem shares of BTC held in their ETFs. To address regulatory concerns, BlackRock has proposed a revised physical model, drawing close attention from market participants awaiting the first wave of spot BTC ETF approvals.
That said, market speculation continues. Bloomberg recently also projected a 90% chance that the SEC will approve a spot BTC ETF by January 10.
Currently, the SEC is reviewing 13 related applications, and industry leaders anticipate significant capital inflows and a substantial surge in BTC price following approval of this long-awaited product.
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