eGirl Capital 2024 Outlook: Mixed Market Sentiments, Strong Conviction in ETF-Driven Supercycle
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eGirl Capital 2024 Outlook: Mixed Market Sentiments, Strong Conviction in ETF-Driven Supercycle
Bitcoin's "fundamentals" remain at the center of market action, with the market proving tougher than expected and significant uncertainty prevailing.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsOriginal source: eGirl Capital
Translation: 0x26, BlockBeats
Editor's note: eGirl Capital is a unique crypto fund. With a goal of investing in only two protocols per year, they rarely appear in funding announcements. Yet every project they back is notable—such as Arbitrum, Blur, Blast, Celestia, Lido, Gearbox, and Gem.
Unlike traditional VCs, eGirl emerged from and remains deeply rooted in the crypto world, maintaining an active presence on social media. In fact, nearly everyone in eGirl is a KOL—engaged in spot and derivatives trading, narrative plays, meme creation, shitposting, or even founding crypto projects themselves. Notable members include DegenSpartan, Loomdart, Scoopy (founder of Alchemix), CL, inversebrah, and hedgedhog.
Loosely structured yet rich in character, eGirl resembles the Marvel Universe’s superheroes—and unsurprisingly, their individual outlooks on 2024 differ. By examining each member’s predictions, we gain insight into what these diverse KOLs genuinely believe about the 2024 crypto market.
With Christmas approaching, we’re excited to reflect on eGirl Capital’s progress in 2023 and share our outlook for 2024.
After making a small investment in Celestia in 2022, we executed two investments in 2023: leading both the first and second rounds for OhBabyGames, which is building multiple games and a Steam-like client for CT (Crypto Twitter). We’re proud of this, and we also led BLAST’s community round. Despite lacking endorsement from Paradigm (Paradigm partner: Disagreements with Blast over marketing strategy, will take ecosystem responsibilities seriously), we firmly believe BLAST represents the future of multisig contracts.
We’ll continue investing at a pace of roughly twice per year. Below are our predictions for 2024:
Bullish on the Supercycle Sparked by ETFs
G: Continued upward momentum. Most TradFi players remain skeptical throughout the bull run, and retail psychology stays unchanged. 2024 marks the definitive beginning of a decades-long supercycle for BTC (and later ETH)—a permanent shift toward DCAing into spot ETFs.
CL: Upward trajectory, but not a straight-line rally like in 2021. CME futures open interest indicates strong optimism and high participation regarding approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. Market participants appear more professional this cycle, engaging across centralized exchange majors, altcoins on CEXs, on-chain alts, and niche NFT collectors. I expect this trend to continue.
Loomdart: The supercycle restarts. We'll rise slowly and steadily, without the craziness of 2021. People now understand how to invest in crypto more sustainably.
Loma: Ethereum deflation and CEX holdings seem irrelevant, but rising institutional interest and speculation around ETF approval in 2024 drive ETH above $3,000. ETH's recovery rekindles mainstream interest in NFTs, kicking off the next NFT bull market. However, previous blue-chip NFTs (BAYC, PUNK, Pudgy Penguins) fail to reach new highs in ETH terms. Do Kwon returns under a new alias to launch another project.
Emily: The return of quantitative easing in 2024. As people seek alternative stores of value, both crypto and commodities/physical assets rise. TradFi shifts from buying FTX shares to investing in spot ETFs.
Scoopy: Better versions of everything and more of it: RWA, infrastructure, derivative gambling, Ponzi schemes, rug pulls, DeFi, pixel art, etc. Every sentiment toward crypto, except indifference, will be amplified. The market rises overall, but weak macroeconomic conditions suppress what could have been a full-blown bull market.
Continued Bullishness on Ethereum
PopcornKirby: 2024 is a great time to be an Ethereum maximalist. Looking at CME open interest, TradFi has virtually no Ethereum exposure—just one hot crypto game or NFT collection could reignite the entire industry.
Eva: Ethereum. Infrastructure and user experience are now ready to deliver high-quality decentralized applications. Institutional capital is flowing in, and DeFi is poised for explosive growth. And zero-knowledge proofs. When we look back at crypto history, we’ll see a clear divide between before and after mass adoption of ZK tech—2024 is the beginning of the ZK era.
Mixed Market Outlook
knlae // 0xKNL__: Bitcoin "fundamentals" remain central to market movements. The market proves tougher than expected, with significant uncertainty (cash flows, elections, first rate cut, QE, etc.).
Most traders suffer severe losses throughout the year. By year-end, over 100 RIAs (registered investment advisors) using SMA based on BTC ETFs flood in and actively promote products—but they need time to adapt. Ethereum catalysts (e.g., ETFs and LSD) plus EIP-4844 drive aggressive ETH rallies. SOL still outperforms ETH in market performance.
The convergence of crypto and AI may give birth to multiple projects worth over $5 billion. RWA accelerates full-speed for both TradFi and the general public. Yield-bearing stablecoins (exceeding $30 billion by year-end), combined with improved crypto infrastructure, finally serve unbanked users in Latin America and Africa, becoming crypto’s second real killer app (after speculation). The U.S. Treasury and IRS implement strict regulations, causing crypto to end 2024 on a down note.
CryptoCat: The first TradFi Layer 2 announces its upcoming launch. Numerous games are built on Layer 2s, but none are actually fun to play.
Lido experiences its first Sheldon crisis. The foundation survives. Account abstraction launches, but users lose funds due to confusion. The ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks its all-time high.
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