2026년, 예정된 암호화폐 기업의 IPO
글쓴이: David, TechFlow
2025년, 암호화폐 기업들이 미국 주식시장에서 총 34억 달러를 조달했다.
서클(Circle)과 불리시(Bullish)는 각각 10억 달러 이상을 유치했고, 제미나이(Gemini)는 나스닥 상장 첫날 주가가 14% 급등했다. 2026년 1월에는 비트고(BitGo)가 뉴욕증권거래소(NYSE)에 상장하며 첫날 주가가 24.6% 상승했고, 시가총액은 26억 달러에 달했다.
이러한 선구자 기업들은 하나의 사실을 입증했다: 월스트리트는 규제 준수를 이행하는 암호화폐 인프라에 지불할 의사가 있다는 것이다.
2026년의 상장 파이프라인은 더욱 두꺼워졌다. 크라켄(Kraken), 컨센시스(Consensys), 레저(Ledger) 등이 모두 상장 대기열에 올라섰으며, 기업 가치는 수십억 달러에서 200억 달러 수준까지 다양하다. 심지어 보안 감사 전문 기업인 세르티크(CertiK)조차도 다보스 포럼에서 IPO 계획을 공식 발표했다.
거래소, 지갑, 자산 보관 서비스, 보안 솔루션 등—암호화폐 산업의 ‘물 공급자들’이 공개시장으로 집단적으로 진입하고 있다.
이 기업들은 언제 상장할 것인지, 어느 정도의 기업 가치를 책정받을지, 또 어떤 리스크를 안고 있는지, 하나씩 살펴보자.
1. 크라켄, 200억 달러 규모의 규제 준수 모범 사례
예상 시가총액: 200억 달러
예상 상장 시기: 2026년 상반기
크라켄은 암호화폐 업계 최고령 거래소 중 하나로, 2011년 설립되어 코인베이스(Coinbase)보다도 1년 앞선다. 그러나 상장 시기는 코인베이스보다 5년 늦었다. 이 차이 기간 동안 크라켄은 미국 증권거래위원회(SEC)의 소송, 합의 협상, 사업 재정비 과정을 겪었고, 결국 2025년 3월 SEC의 소송 취하 결정을 받아냈다.
재무 실적 역시 탄탄하다:
2024년 매출은 15억 달러, 조정 후 EBITDA는 4억 달러를 넘었다. 2025년 3분기 단일 분기 매출은 6.48억 달러로, 전년 동기 대비 50% 증가했다. 플랫폼 관리 자산(AUM)은 593억 달러, 분기 거래량은 5768억 달러였다.
2025년 11월, 크라켄은 프리-IPO 펀딩으로 8억 달러를 유치하며 기업 가치를 200억 달러로 평가받았다. 투자자 명단에는 시타델 증권(Citadel Securities), 제인 스트리트(Jane Street), DRW 등 전통 금융권 최정상급 시장조성업체들이 포함됐다. 이들의 진입은 암호화폐 거래소가 금융 인프라의 일부로 자리 잡을 것이라는 기대를 반영한다.
같은 달, 크라켄은 비밀 S-1 신고서를 제출했으며, 목표 상장 시기는 2026년 상반기다.
성공한다면, 크라켄은 코인베이스에 이어 미국 주식시장에 상장하는 두 번째 주류 암호화폐 거래소가 되며, 동시에 ‘젠슬러(Gensler) 이후 시대’에 완전한 상장 절차를 성공적으로 마친 첫 번째 기업이 될 것이다.
2. 컨센시스, 메타마스크의 모회사가 상장을 준비하다
예상 시가총액: 70억 달러 (2022년 평가액)
예상 상장 시기: 2026년 중반
컨센시스는 암호화폐 업계에서 가장 가치 있는 제품들을 보유하고 있다: 메타마스크(MetaMask) 지갑은 월간 활성 사용자(MAU)가 3000만 명에 달하고, 인퓨라(Infura) 노드 서비스는 대부분의 이더리움 dApp 기반 인프라를 지원하며, 라이네아(Linea) L2 네트워크도 운영 중이다. 이 회사는 이더리움 생태계의 ‘배관공’으로, 거의 모든 개발자가 그 도구를 사용하고 있다.
이 기업은 이더리움 공동 창시자 조셉 루빈(Joseph Lubin)이 설립했으며, 2022년 4.5억 달러 규모 펀딩 당시 기업 가치는 70억 달러였다. 현재는 JP모건과 골드만삭스와 협력해 IPO를 준비 중이며, 목표 상장 시기는 2026년 중반이다.
공모서류에서는 메타마스크 스왑(MetaMask Swaps) 수익을 중점적으로 강조할 것으로 예상된다. 이 기능은 사용자가 지갑 내에서 직접 토큰을 거래하도록 해주며, 거래당 0.875%의 수수료를 부과한다. 2025년에는 메타마스크가 원생 비트코인 지원을 추가해 순수 EVM 기반 지갑에서 멀티체인 지갑으로 확장했고, 사용자를 자사 생태계에 머물게 하려는 전략을 추진 중이다.
컨센시스의 상장에 대한 관심은, MASK 토큰 운영과 IPO를 동시에 진행한다는 점에서 기인한다. 이 두 가지는 어떻게 조율될 것인가? 토큰 보유자와 주주의 이익 간 충돌은 없을까? 이러한 질문은 암호화폐 기업 거버넌스의 새로운 사례가 될 가능성이 있다.
3. 레저, 하드웨어 지갑 기업이 소프트웨어 이야기를 하려 한다
예상 시가총액: 40억 달러
예상 상장 시기: 2026년
레저는 600만 대 이상의 하드웨어 지갑을 판매했으며, 사용자들이 보유한 비트코인 자산 중 1000억 달러 이상을 관리해왔다. 그러나 레저는 단순히 ‘장비를 파는 기업’이 되기를 거부한다.
최근 2년간 CEO 파스칼 고티에(Pascal Gauthier)는 뉴욕에서 자주 모습을 드러냈다. 그가 투자자들에게 전하는 이야기는 바로 “레저는 자율 보관(Self-Custody) 분야의 애플이 될 것”이라는 비전이다.
이 전환의 핵심은 ‘레저 라이브(Ledger Live)’ 앱이다. 이 앱은 하드웨어 지갑과 소프트웨어 지갑, 스테이킹(Staking), 디파이(DeFi) 상호작용을 통합한 플랫폼으로, 하드웨어 판매에서 구독형 서비스로, 일회성 수익에서 반복적 수익으로 전환을 추구한다.
이 이야기는 월스트리트에서도 호응을 얻고 있다.
지난 1월 23일 파이낸셜 타임스(FT) 보도에 따르면, 레저는 골드만삭스, 제퍼리스(Jefferies), 바클레이스와 함께 뉴욕증권거래소(NYSE) 상장을 위한 협의를 진행 중이며, 목표 기업 가치는 40억 달러를 넘는다. 이는 2023년 15억 달러 평가액의 거의 3배에 달하는 수치다.
이 기업 가치를 뒷받침하는 것은 실적이다.
2025년 레저의 매출은 수억 달러에 달했으며, 고티에 CEO는 이를 “기록적인 한 해”라고 평가했다. FTX 붕괴 이후 다시 유행하게 된 “너의 키가 아니면 너의 코인이 아니다(Not your keys, not your coins)”라는 슬로건에 따라, 기관 및 개인 투자자들이 자율 보관으로 전환하는 추세가 가속화됐다.
지난해 암호화폐 해킹 피해액은 사상 최고치인 170억 달러를 기록했는데, 오히려 이 사건이 레저의 강점으로 작용했다.
그러나 일반 사용자에게 하드웨어 지갑은 여전히 너무 복잡하다. 레저의 성장 한계는 이 진입 장벽을 얼마나 낮출 수 있느냐에 달려 있다.
4. 빗썸, 한국의 베테랑 거래소가 재도약을 노린다
예상 시가총액: 공개되지 않음
예상 상장 시기: 2026년
상장 예정 시장: 한국 코스닥(KOSDAQ) (나스닥 검토도 진행됨)
빗썸은 과거 한국 최대 거래소였으나, 이후 업비트(Upbit)에 자리를 내주었다. 현재 업비트는 한국 시장 점유율의 80% 이상을 차지하고 있으며, 빗썸은 15~20% 수준으로 위축됐다.
2024년 빗썸은 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수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수수
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