Nonfarm Payrolls and PCE Test Fed’s Interest Rate Path, Trump Rejects Iran Ceasefire

TechFlow reports that on September 27, according to Jinshi Data, this week's macro market focus centers on expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, with current trader bets on an October rate hike approaching 70%. The upcoming new nonfarm employment figures and core PCE price index will serve as key data to verify the resilience of the US economy and the trend of cooling inflation, directly setting the tone for the pace of subsequent monetary policy.

Geopolitically, Donald Trump's explicit rejection of a ceasefire proposal involving Iran has once again intensified tensions in the Middle East. While relevant parties to the Strait of Hormuz plan to resume negotiations, core divergences in demands continue to inject uncertainty into regional security. In parallel, Federal Reserve officials are frequently speaking out to convey policy signals, and with an RBA rate hike now virtually certain, expectations surrounding global liquidity remain subject to intense market contention.