Bernstein: Prediction Markets to Reach $10 Trillion by 2035, Kalshi to Capture 60% Share

TechFlow reports that according to Tide Research, a Bernstein research report dated September 22, 2026 forecasts prediction market trading volume to rise from approximately $50 billion in 2025 to around $300 billion year-to-date in 2026, with an expected value of $1 trillion by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of roughly 70% from 2025 to 2035. Sports betting's share will decline from approximately 61% in 2025 to about 38% by 2035, while financial assets will grow to roughly 49%. Kalshi accounts for approximately 60% of the global prediction market year-to-date in 2026, with Polymarket holding around 22%. Approximately 80% of Kalshi's users have never used a sports betting application, indicating an expanding customer acquisition funnel.

Bernstein notes that the exchange model transforms sports betting into a traffic-focused business, eliminating house positions while providing a global order book and institutional market making. The firm assigns an Outperform rating to both Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN), advising attention to regulatory developments and the pace of institutional adoption.