Shifts in Commodity Supply-Demand Dynamics as Port Closures and Weather Disruptions Impact Supply

TechFlow reports on September 23 that, according to Jinshi Data, the supply and demand dynamics in the commodity market continue to evolve. The resumption of inspections at some domestic coal mines has been slow, with stringent approval processes restricting short-term production increases. Clearance volumes at China-Mongolia highway border crossings have fallen below 1.7 million tons, and it has been confirmed that the borders will close from October 1 to 7 for the National Day holiday. Affected by El Niño-induced drought, the IMIP nickel pig iron plant in Indonesia faces a reduced cooling water supply, causing its operational load to drop to 30%-40%, which is expected to impact high-nickel pig iron production by 50,000 to 70,000 tons.

In agricultural commodities, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by nearly 50% month-on-month in early September. Institutions forecast that exports will stabilize at approximately 16 million tons by 2027, with crude palm oil prices remaining elevated. On the metals front, LME data for the week ending September 18 showed that investment funds' net long positions in copper and aluminum decreased by 827 lots and 3,542 lots, respectively. Analysts noted that the global aluminum market remains in a short-term deficit, but is projected to shift to a surplus by 2027.