Wintermute: Two Catalysts Materialize, BTC Breaks Out of Range to Hit Eight-Month High

TechFlow reports that on September 22, Wintermute released its market weekly note, highlighting that the Federal Reserve unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate hike on September 21 with a 12-0 vote, raising rates to 3.75%-4.00%. Sixteen officials projected at least one additional rate hike this year, with inflation not expected to return to the 2% target until 2029. The two major market catalysts—the FOMC rate hike and the CLARITY Act—have both materialized: the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate (49-50 vote, missing the 60-vote threshold), and the SEC and CFTC subsequently stated they would formulate crypto regulatory rules under their existing authorities. The market regained lost ground after just one trading session of adjustment.

BTC traded in a $75,000 to $81,000 range this week, closing at $81,159 for the week—the first time it has held above the 50-week moving average since November last year. ETH rose 6.7%, trading in the $2,350 to $2,600 range. Regarding ETF flows, there was a net outflow of $746 million from Tuesday to Wednesday, followed by a net inflow of $593 million from Thursday to Friday, leaving a five-day net outflow of approximately $6 million. Nearly all outflows triggered by the CLARITY Act were recouped within 48 hours. Earlier this week, both BTC and ETH broke above the upper boundary of their ranges ahead of the U.S. equity market open, triggering about $250 million in short liquidations and pushing BTC to briefly touch $86,000, an eight-month high. Wintermute notes that current market sentiment remains healthy, and this week's focus will shift back to BTC, ETH (watching for the Glamsterdam upgrade), SOL, and HYPE (monitoring the $100 mark).